Back in January, the biggest shock that could’ve come out of the NFL was that, of all the names, Bill Belichick — the winningest coach in Super Bowl history — would not be standing on Canton’s stage as the first ballot Hall of Famer. And on Saturday, while the Hall of Fame celebrated its Class of 2026, Belichick’s absence remained worth noting. So much so that the Hall is ready to do something it hasn’t for a long time.

This weekend, the HOF board of directors could very well sit to vote on rule changes after the existing convoluted voting system omitted the coach who should’ve been on everyone’s ballot card, hate him or not. Meanwhile, The Athletic reporter and HOF selector, Mike Sando, who previously speculated why the snub may have happened in the first place, revealed who gained the most from the omission.

“The outrage over Belichick missing was appropriate and shared by me as a selector. At the same time, after this weekend, does anyone wish Roger Craig had missed? Craig was the beneficiary of Belichick missing,” Mike Sando wrote on X.

The circumstances make that possibility particularly interesting. Let me first break it down for you: Belichick, Patriots owner Robert Kraft and three senior candidates, Roger Craig, former Bengals quarterback Ken Anderson and late Steelers defensive end L.C. Greenwood, were placed into the same five-person finalist pool. Each of the 50 selectors could vote for only three candidates, and a nominee needed at least 40 votes to be elected.

That meant the question was not simply whether Belichick was Hall of Fame-worthy. It was also a question of which three candidates voters were willing to prioritize when five finalists were competing for the same limited votes.

• How Craig’s long wait collided with the HOF voting rules

In February, Sando explained that “some voters prioritizing long-waiting candidates over superior ones while the Hall narrowed the funnel leading to enshrinement” led to Belichick not getting the required 40 percent votes.

In simple terms, if 4-5 voters thought that Belichick was going to make it to the Hall of Fame whether they voted for him or not, they funneled votes to competing candidates. That’s where Sando’s latest claim on Craig comes in.

The offensive maestro of the 1980s had to wait 28 years before he was finally enshrined in Canton. This was his third appearance as a finalist, with 2010 and 2020 being the previous years. While he is a 49ers legend, Belichick’s resume, in comparison, confirms that he would not have to wait that long to get the bronze statue and the golden jacket.

He finished his NFL head-coaching career with a 333-178 record in the regular season and playoffs combined, second only to Don Shula’s 347 victories. His 31 postseason wins are the most by an NFL head coach, while his 17 division titles and nine conference championships are also unmatched by any other head coach. Then there are the Super Bowl numbers.

Belichick won six Super Bowls as the Patriots’ head coach and two more as the Giants’ defensive coordinator, giving him eight championship rings — the most by any individual in NFL history. He also appeared in 12 Super Bowls during his coaching career. Yet those numbers were not enough to get him to 40 votes.

Put simply, Craig’s candidacy carried the kind of urgency that Belichick’s did not.

However, there’s also the other side of the coin that revealed the truth behind the snub long ago.

Bill Belichick and the controversies surrounding his Patriots dynasty

No one can forget how Belichick entered New England and turned the team into the league’s modern dynasty. But neither can you forget the controversies that came with it.

Back in February, many sources told ESPN that Spygate and Deflategate were discussed during the deliberations. One veteran Hall voter told ESPN that the controversies bothered some selectors. Spygate, in particular, followed Belichick throughout his career.

The Patriots were disciplined in 2007 after the NFL determined that the team had improperly videotaped opposing teams’ signals. Belichick, instead of denying anything, openly said that everyone does it and was fined $500,000, while the Patriots were fined $250,000 and lost a first-round draft pick.

Bill Polian became part of that conversation as well. Reports suggested that the Hall of Fame selector, former Colts general manager, and Belichick’s competitor had advocated making Belichick wait a year as a form of penance for Spygate. However, Polian denied that characterization.

He said he had heard other voters “float that idea,” but denied telling selectors that Belichick should wait a year. He later said the Hall’s auditors confirmed that he had voted for Belichick.

“I was shocked to learn Bill didn’t get in,” Polian said. “He deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.”

That distinction matters because there is no public evidence establishing that one voter, or one organized effort, kept Belichick out. The Hall’s voting is confidential, and the explanations that have emerged are a mixture of reported deliberations and possible voting strategies. There was another argument working against Belichick, too: the question of how much credit he deserved independent of Tom Brady.

Belichick’s record without Brady has become part of the debate around his legacy, particularly after his unsuccessful first season as North Carolina’s head coach. But Brady himself has repeatedly defended his former coach and made clear how highly he regards him. And Belichick’s career was far bigger than his partnership with Brady. What is certain is that Belichick will be back.

His failure to reach 40 votes this time does not erase 333 total victories, 31 postseason wins, 17 division titles, nine conference championships or eight Super Bowl victories. It does, however, create a strange precedent: one of the most accomplished coaches in NFL history now has to enter the Hall of Fame conversation for a second time. And for the Hall, that may be the bigger problem.

Belichick’s eventual gold jacket is inevitable. The more difficult question is what his first-ballot failure says about a voting system in which a candidate with his résumé can miss the 40-vote threshold. And now, everyone, including Belichick, is left wondering: What more can you accomplish to get a first-ballot selection?