The NFL trade deadline is in the books, so we’re at the point of the season where every team’s roster is pretty much set in stone. Sure, there will be free agent additions, but there isn’t anyone on the market who’s good enough to make a significant difference for a contending team.

With the deadline gone, I thought it would be a good time to make an updated playoff picture prediction. The AFC only has eight teams that are in a legitimate fight for a playoff spot, so it was more about seeding, but the NFC still has at least 10 or 11 dogs in the fight.

Let’s see how I think the rest of the season will play out and who will get into the playoffs.

AFC

1. Buffalo Bills (14-3)

Starting with the 1-seed in the AFC, I think it has to be the Bills. Josh Allen and Co. are playing great offensively, and their defense is doing enough to help them win games. Plus, Buffalo has a relatively easy path to the playoffs with four games against the Dolphins and Jets still to come. They can win 14 games this year and get the first-round bye.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (14-3)

I do have another AFC team winning 14 games, and that’s Jacksonville. They already have two blemishes on their record, but they are one of the most complete teams in football, and I think they made some really good moves at the trade deadline to address some of their weaknesses. Add on the fact that six of their final nine games are against the Titans (2x), Giants, Colts, Commanders, and Cowboys, and it’s hard to see them winning less than 13 games this year.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (13-4)

The Bengals are playing like one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Joe Burrow has been on fire, scoring 4+ touchdowns in each of his last four games, and right now, they seem like the favorites in the AFC North. I do think their defense will lose them a couple more games this season, because at times they’ve just imploded (36 points allowed against the Titans, 30 allowed to the Steelers), but their offense is good enough to make it up most of the time.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

After back-to-back losses, the Chiefs got back in the win column with a 35-12 blowout over the Jets. Do I have concerns about this offense if Kenneth Walker isn’t rushing for 100+ yards a game? Yes, but they don’t face too many elite run-stopping teams for the rest of the season, so they should chug along and finish with 11 or 12 wins and take the AFC West.

5. Denver Broncos (12-5)

But the Chiefs don’t have a lot of room for error, because if they slip up, Denver will be right there to steal the AFC West away from them. This team definitely has its flaws offensively, but Jonah Coleman has helped fix this rushing attack, and Bo Nix has stepped up in the fourth quarter. They may be a flawed team, but they know how to win games – they’ve won 16 one-score games in a row – and that’s all that matters in the NFL.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)

The Steelers are riding a four-game win streak, but their schedule gets pretty tough down the stretch. They still have to go to Cincinnati, host Denver, host Houston, and go to Jacksonville, and I think they lose all four of those games. But outside of those, they should have at least a fighting chance in every other game this season. They get in as a Wild Card, but I don’t think they win the North.

7. Houston Texans (10-7)

My confidence in Houston has never wavered. I still think this is a very good football team, and looking at their remaining schedule, it’s hard to find more than two more losses. They get the Packers and Jaguars, but outside of that, they play the Browns, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Commanders, Eagles, and Titans.

The Steelers will be a tough game, but other than that, they’re better than everyone else they play. Meanwhile, New England, their only other real rival for the 7-seed, still has to play the Lions, Bills, Vikings, Chiefs and Broncos, and they already have four losses. It’ll be close, but I’m taking Houston at this point.

Just Missed Out

8. New England Patriots (9-8)

9. Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)

NFC

1. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

The 49ers have a bunch of injuries, I know that, but Kyle Shanahan just knows how to win despite losing a bunch of players. Every year, he losses guys and then wins more games than anyone expects, and considering the rest of their schedule is pretty light, I just don’t see them winning fewer than 12 games.

2. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

I’m all aboard the Vikings hype train now. We always hear that a team is “a quarterback away,” but that’s rarely true. But for Minnesota, it actually is true. They have the best defense in the league, an elite wide receiver and a solid offensive line. I would’ve liked to have seen them add a running back at the deadline, but getting Kirk Cousins back in Kevin O’Connell’s system will be massive for them. They’re real threats for the 1-seed in the NFC now.

3. New York Giants (9-7-1)

It’s a tragedy that the NFC East and NFC South will both get a top-four seed, but that’s just how the NFL works. I really don’t think the Giants are a great team, but they’re 5-2-1 and have a lot of easy games left on their schedule. They could very easily win the division with eight wins, but I think they get to nine.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

The NFC South sucks, but somebody has to win it, and I think it’ll be Tampa. I used a schedule predictor site to pick every game, and I actually had the South coming down to Week 18 when the Saints travel to Tampa with the winner making the playoffs, and I ended up picking Tampa. I just think they’re a more well-rounded team than New Orleans, so they sneak in.

5. Detroit Lions (12-5)

Unless you’re getting the 1-seed, I think you want to get the 5-seed in the NFC. Sure, being the 2-seed or 3-seed lets you host in round one and a better chance of hosting in the future rounds, but as the 5-seed, you’re going to play the NFC South or NFC East winner, and that’s basically a free win. Detroit has looked a bit off recently, but their offense will bounce back, and they’ll get to 11 or 12 wins.

6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)

The Packers already have three losses on their record, but they’re playing some of the best football in the NFL in recent weeks. They do have a brutal schedule, facing Minnesota, Detroit, Los Angeles, Buffalo, Chicago, and Houston, but if Jordan Love keeps playing at an MVP-level and Micah Parsons can make a real impact on this defense, they’ll get into the postseason.

7. Chicago Bears (11-6)

I think the Bears are a fantastic team, so you may be wondering how I have them going 4-4 over their final eight games, and it’s because they don’t play many easy teams the rest of the year. They get the Saints next week after their bye, but they’ve gotten some players back and can be competitive. And then after that, they have to go to Detroit, Buffalo, Miami, and Minnesota while hosting Detroit, Green Bay, and Jacksonville. I can see Chicago winning seven of those games, but I can also see them losing five of them, so I settled on 11-6 as a nice middle ground.

Just Missed Out

8. Los Angeles Rams (11-6)

9. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)

10. Dallas Cowboys (8-9)

11. New Orleans Saints (7-10)