Aidan O’Connell wasn’t supposed to be the guy in Vegas last year, but when chaos hit, he stepped in and gave the Raiders some of their grittiest moments. Whether it was hanging tough in the pocket with bodies flying at him or putting together a late scoring drive when the team needed someone to settle things down, the number two QB showed up.

Two quarters in Glendale were all it took to shake up the hype around him, as he headed to the locker room after a brief stint. And after Pete Carroll‘s post-match presser? Things are worse than you probably expected.

Yes, Carroll dropped an update, and you might want to look away. Aidan O’Connell fractured his right wrist and will be out six to eight weeks, he revealed. The team hadn’t even pushed the update yet, but Carroll’s words hit like a depth-chart earthquake.

Las Vegas really didn’t need this. O’Connell had just gone 3-of-4 for 36 yards before leaving the preseason finale in Arizona. A game that kicked off with Geno Smith putting the Raiders on the board in his only series. The plan was to finally take the training wheels off this offense, and now that had to change.

How it went down? Rewind to O’Connell’s first snaps. He got swarmed and strip-sacked on the very first drive. A rough start that led to the sideline check and his trip to the locker room. A fumble and an exit doesn’t look too good on the box sheet does it?

For O’Connell, the timing couldn’t be worse. He was finally settling into the perfect QB2 spot behind Smith after starting nine games last season and putting up 1,612 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks. A steady, reliable producer that coaches love when the number 1 isn’t there.

And for the roster, that means the reliable clipboard is suddenly replaced with uncertainty. Rookie Cam Miller finished the night 12-of-24 for 102 yards. A quick little reminder of just where the QB depth chart sits at the moment. And O’Connell’s availability matters if the Raiders don’t like what they see from Geno Smith.

The $18.5M Geno Smith “exit strategy”

Look, the Raiders love Geno.  He’s the QB1 and the depth chart is set in stone. Well…for now. But if the Raiders don’t like what they see, they’ve got a way out. They structured Smith’s contract in such a way that it’s possible to escape after this season with just an $18.5 million dead cap hit. Yeah, in this QB world? $18.5 million cap hit is nothing.

Let’s put it simply. Smith’s deal barely ties the Raiders to him past this season. He’s got $18.5 million guaranteed for 2026, but since Vegas avoids big signing bonuses, that’s all the dead money they’d eat if they cut him next year. Keep him through 2026, and he’s looking at $40 million this year and $26.5 million next. After that? Zero guarantees for 2027. So basicaly, Raiders could walk away with no dead money at all.

But so far, the ‘escape hatch’ isn’t looking likely. Smith showed exactly why the Raiders brought him in, hitting a touchdown on his only drive against Arizona (2-of-3, 26 yards, TD). And that’s the tone you can expect for the rest of the season.

If Smith hits the marks he did from 2022–2024 and keeps the offense humming in Kelly’s system, that escape hatch becomes optional instead of mandatory. But if the offense bogs down and O’Connell impresses, the Raiders already have a built-in fork in the road ready to go.