Remember when the Raiders’ toughest road trip was just getting to the practice field? Hoping someone, anyone, could break a run for more than 40 yards? Yeah, it was tough. Last season, Vegas finished dead last in rushing. Just 1,357 yards total. That’s only 79.8 yards per game. Worst in the entire NFL. Enter Ashton Jeanty. Boise State’s cornerstone. The guy who broke tackles like it was nothing and rewrote record books while he was at it. The Raiders’ front office is hyped. So are the fans. Everyone’s talking like he’s the answer to the run game problem. But are they asking too much, too soon?

When analysts were asked who’d make the biggest impact in Vegas among Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Ashton Jeanty? Ashton was the unanimous answer. All of them picked Jeanty. That’s a bold take. Especially when the whole offence needs a reset from top to bottom.

Ryan Wilson explained why. “Ashton Jeanty feels like the easy answer because the rookie leading rusher over the last 10 years averaged about 1,200 yards, and that feels about the sweet spot for Ashton Jeanty. They obviously upgraded the QB with Geno Smith, and the offence is going to run in large parts through Ashton Jeanty.“

And honestly? It makes a lot of sense. Mike Renner chimed in. “What Ashton Jeannty did last year was truly special. I mean, he broke PFF’s single-season broken tackles record by like 40. The guy just could not be taken down.“ He deserves all the hype. But this goes beyond hype. The way they talk about him? It seems like that’s a guy being asked to do… everything. And it makes you wonder: are they handing Jeanty the keys to a broken race car and expecting him to win?

The Raiders do need him. Big time. Nobody ran well in 2024. Not under Pease. Not even with Chip Kelly stepping in. But leaning too hard on a rookie? Even one as good as Jeanty? That can go sideways fast. The NFL is littered with backs who flame out under too much pressure. He’s a rookie. It’s imperative to treat him like one.

Rookie of the Year aspirations crank up the pressure.

As if Pete Carroll’s offence wasn’t already putting enough on Ashton Jeanty’s plate, well, the stakes just went up. Touchdown Wire’s Jarrett Bailey just made a bold call. The prediction? Jeanty to win the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year. He said Jeanty is “the player in which the Raiders drive their offence.” No pressure, right?

Let’s add background to all this hype. Because his college resume? Wild. In his final year at Boise State, he led the FBS in rushing yards after contact (1347), while breaking out 104 tackles. Both were PFF records. Now go on and add 16 rushing touchdowns and 35 catches for 475 yards? That’s a full package.

He has that dual-threat skill set that teams dream about. That blend of elusiveness and receiving chops makes him the ideal modern back. But also, the kind teams can lean on too heavily. Hopefully, Pete Caroll doesn’t make this mistake.

Bailey thinks if Jeanty stays healthy all season, he’s a lock for 1,000 yards and probably the top rookie rusher. These are some big expectations. But here’s where it gets tricky: rookie backs who get over 275 touches? They almost always hit a wall the next year. We saw it with Najee Harris, we saw it with Ezekiel Elliot. It’s a lot to carry, literally.

So, while all the hype is more than deserved, the risk cannot be ignored. The Raiders were dead last in rushing yards and near the bottom in yards per carry last season, and that kind of desperation could lead to overloading him fast. Now throw in a shaky offensive line into that. A line PFF ranked 22nd ahead of the new season. Jeanty might be in for more hits than highlights if the offence doesn’t find some balance.

So yeah, Jeanty’s got the talent to bring some serious hardware to Vegas. But if he’s expected to carry the entire offence on his own? Even a Rookie of the Year season might not be enough to keep things from falling apart again.