Three words flipped the Raider Nation upside down. When Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith posted “THANK YOU LORD” on X, nobody needed much imagination to read between the lines. That post felt like a goodbye, and now, an NFL insider has confirmed it.

With 19 days until the new league year kicks off on March 11, the era of Geno Smith in silver and black seems to be almost over.

“The Raiders will release Geno Smith ahead of the new league year, which will clear the way for No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza to start immediately,” NFL reporter Evan Sidery writes on X. “Smith’s 2026-27 salary is set to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the new league year if not traded or released.”

Now, the 19-day deadline isn’t arbitrary; it’s a financial tripwire for the Raiders. Per Over the Cap, if Smith remains on the Raiders’ roster on the third day of the new league year, an additional $8 million of his $26.5 million 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed. That’s money Las Vegas simply isn’t willing to commit.

Releasing Smith also preserves cap flexibility for a franchise projected to carry $76 million in space. This parting of the ways helps them climb to a much higher number. That’s ammunition to surround a rookie quarterback with real weapons.

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Smith’s 2025 numbers were the real verdict: 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 17 picks, with a passer rating of 84.7. Not bad, but not franchise-level. Not enough to hold off a generational prospect at No. 1 either.

Pete Carroll’s one-and-done tenure as head coach only underlined the urgency. Las Vegas wasn’t patching up the same car, they were shopping for a new one. And they found it in Fernando Mendoza.

While Smith’s exit reads as certain, the real story is what (and who) comes next in the Mojave.

Fernando Mendoza, Tom Brady, and a new era in Las Vegas?

A big reason for Fernando Mendoza’s confidence in the Raiders is their minority owner and seven times Super Bowl champ Tom Brady. The young quarterback made it clear in a recent interview that he idolizes Brady and wants to learn from him.

“Tom Brady, he’s been a huge football idol of mine,” Mendoza said. “The way that he has processes and systems, and the way he talks about his leadership, is something that’s always resonated with myself… The way that he prepares and really has a process about going about things, and having discipline.”

Having Brady in the building as a mentor who mastered the game for two decades is an edge no franchise can manufacture. And what’s more, Mendoza is already versed in what he could be asked to bring in new head coach Klint Kubiak’s offense.

“The way he’s developed Sam Darnold has been phenomenal,” Mendoza said. “So just being a football fan before he got hired, I watched a lot of breakdowns of his film… Before he got hired, I watched a lot of film, and I’m a huge fan of his work.”

As for Kubiak, he has already set the tone. Speaking recently, Kubiak made it clear he’s sold on the strong upside Fernando Mendoza could bring to the Raiders.

“I saw him play the national championship game, I saw the interviews he’s given after those games and how team-oriented he is,” Kubiak said. “I look forward to getting to know the player better, but obviously a really talented guy with a bright future.”

That sounds different than coach-speak. It’s almost like a franchise committing its future to a quarterback who hasn’t even played a professional snap in the NFL. And Mendoza has earned that confidence.

The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner led Indiana to a 16-0 record and a national championship. He was the architect behind one of the most dominant college runs in recent memory. NFL insider Jason La Canfora confirmed the Raiders’ “future is intrinsically tied” to Mendoza with the first overall pick, and they have no interest in trading it away.

So within 19 days, the Raiders will flip the page. Geno Smith’s chapter is at an end in silver and black. With Kubiak’s system, Brady’s mentorship, and millions in cap space, Las Vegas is set up to build. Against this backdrop, Fernando Mendoza isn’t just the future of this franchise. He may be their first franchise quarterback since Derek Carr.