The consensus around Fernando Mendoza as the 2026 No. 1 pick has been shattered by a top analyst, casting a shadow of doubt over the Las Vegas Raiders’ draft strategy. Although he is seen as a No. 1 prospect, analyst Todd McShay holds a contrasting opinion.

“Through nine games, I will make this statement, and I will stand on it,” said Todd recently on the Up and Adams Show with Kay Adams. “Ty Simpson’s tapes better than Fernando Mendoza. Now, Mendoza went like this (pointing upwards) and escalated, and Ty Simpson, for those reasons, kind of just fell off. But there are some teams that are looking at that.”

While Mendoza played for Indiana in the 2025 season, Ty represented the Alabama Crimson Tide throughout his four-year college career. The Alabama star played one less game than the Heisman Trophy winner, yet registered more passing yards in the 2025 season.

Mendoza managed 3,535 passing yards from 16 games, whereas Ty recorded 3,567 passing yards playing 15 games. Todd’s words carry a great deal of truth, considering the first nine games of their respective seasons, when Ty registered 2,461 passing yards, the Indiana star had a lower number at 2,124.

Similarly, the 23-year-old QB had a better passing accuracy than his counterpart at the beginning of the season, although it reversed in the latter part of the campaign. In the final stats, the projected number one draft pick was much ahead in the passing touchdowns. Mendoza (41) registered 13 more passing touchdowns than Ty (28) last season.

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While Simpson only began starting games this year, these numbers would be enough to unsettle the Raiders and Tom Brady (minority owner), who would have been otherwise excited about drafting Mendoza.

Though both quarterbacks put up strong numbers, Mendoza finished the season with significant momentum, which put him ahead of Ty in the draft projections. Besides the impressive statistics, he led the Indiana Hoosiers to the CFP National Championship and the Heisman Trophy.

After Geno Smith’s poor performance in the 2025 season, the Raiders are anticipated to rope in the Hoosiers signal caller in the NFL Draft. The New York Jets, who hold the second overall pick, are reportedly open to holding talks with the Las Vegas franchise for a potential swap of their positions.

Jets’ quarterback uncertainty drives No. 1 pick trade discussions

Since the departure of the veteran Aaron Rodgers in 2024, the New York Jets have failed to find an ideal replacement. The franchise experimented with the first-round 2021 NFL Draft pick, Justin Fields, who failed to show promise and featured in just nine games due to an injury in the previous campaign.

Much like the Raiders, the Jets are in dire need of a reliable quarterback, and they don’t want to head into the next season with ongoing uncertainty at the position.

The Jets’ general manager, Darren Mougey, recently stated at the NFL Combine that the team will hold talks to plot the bold move of trading the No.1 overall pick with the Raiders, but the chances would still be bleak.

“Absolutely, we’ll talk about all those things,” said Mougey. “But I don’t think that’s happening.”

Both the Raiders and Jets wrapped their 2025 seasons with a 3-14 record. With Geno Smith’s uncertainty, the black and white are looking for a premium QB who could potentially be a franchise player, and Mendoza could be the answer. It’s extremely improbable that Mark Davis and Tom Brady will consider trading that position.