When quarterbacks coach Chandler Whitmer first started working with Fernando Mendoza in Indiana, he didn’t exactly see a future NFL star. At that time, the Indiana Hoosiers were enduring one of the most disappointing programs in college football, and Mendoza still looked like a raw prospect from Cal. But here’s the thing about Mendoza: he wanted to be developed, and that made all the difference. In just a few weeks of helping Mendoza refine his mechanics, Whitmer realised that the QB was something special and meant to make it to the NFL.

Mendoza then found the highest form of success with the Hoosiers, and earlier this year, he announced himself “Open to Work” on LinkedIn. It was Mendoza’s tongue-in-cheek way of declaring his entry in the 2026 NFL Draft. Now, as the projected No. 1 overall pick, Mendoza’s future appears tied to the Las Vegas Raiders. But the real question isn’t whether the team should draft Mendoza – it’s how they should handle him once he arrives in Las Vegas.

Last month, the Raiders revealed some of their plans for Mendoza by signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a five-year, $172 million contract. The veteran QB is expected to mentor Mendoza since the Raiders have released Geno Smith. But former NFL QB Chase Daniel is one of the many NFL analysts who believe that starting Cousins over Mendoza in Week 1 does not make sense. And last month at the NFL’s Annual Meeting, here’s what the Raiders’ head coach, Klint Kubiak, had to say about starting rookie QBs: 

Raider Nation knows this story all too well. The last time the franchise selected a QB with the No. 1 overall pick was in 2007, when they bet everything on JaMarcus Russell to turn around a 2-14 team. But that gamble didn’t pay off.

In three seasons, Russell recorded just 4,083 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions before being labeled one of the biggest busts in NFL history. Now, nearly two decades later, Raider Nation once again faces the same mix of hope, curiosity, and desperation surrounding another top overall pick. Even so, if Mendoza enters the gridiron as the starter in Week 1 of the 2026 season, I have reason to believe all the cards will be stacked against him. 

The troubling track record of No.1 pick QBs in Week 1 starts 

Over the last five seasons, the NFL has developed an expectation: if a QB goes No. 1 overall, he should start immediately. In 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals started Joe Burrow in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. In the following seasons, Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Carolina Panthers’ Bryce Young, Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams, and Tennessee Titans’ Cam Ward were given the same treatment. 

But the harsh reality is that since these rookies were thrown into the fire immediately, they went 1-4 in their NFL debuts, with Caleb Williams being the only exception. Go back even further, and the odds look much worse for Fernando Mendoza to succeed in his NFL debut. 

Since 1970, QBs selected first overall have compiled a 3-14-1 record in their Week 1 NFL starts. In fact, Williams became the first No. 1 pick QB to win his debut in over 20 years, since David Carr did it in 2002. But despite securing a 24-17 win against the Tennessee Titans in his NFL debut, Williams struggled to play at his level best. 

Facing a 3rd & 3 in the Bears’ opening drive of the game, Williams missed a pass to receiver DeAndre Carter, who was wide open down the sideline. Later, facing first-and-10 from Tennessee’s 25-yard line, Williams took a 19-yard sack that knocked Chicago out of field-goal range. Williams finished the game, completing 14 of 29 passes for just 93 yards, while taking two sacks that cost the Bears 29 yards. 

So, it was not Williams, but the Bears’ defense and special teams that did the heavy lifting. Chicago’s defense ranked No. 1 in 2023, which allowed Williams to survive his NFL debut. But the Raiders, however, don’t have that kind of safety net for Mendoza. 

The Raiders’ defense finished last season ranked 14th in the NFL, which means Mendoza will have far less margin for error. At the same time, the career trajectory of some elite QBs provides an alternative approach for the Raiders to take with Mendoza. 

Patience is a virtue that creates better NFL QBs 

Unlike Fernando Mendoza, Patrick Mahomes was the 10th overall pick in the first round. In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to draft Mahomes, but he spent nearly his entire rookie season backing up veteran QB Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes only made his NFL debut as a starter in the Chiefs’ Week 17 game against the Denver Broncos. And that day, Mahomes made plays when it mattered most to secure a 27-24 win for the Chiefs. 

With the game tied at 24-24 and less than three minutes remaining on the clock, Mahomes led an 11-play, 67-yard drive that set up the Chiefs’ game-winning field goal. Mahomes finished the game completing 22 of 35 passes for 284 yards, and later credited Alex Smith for helping him learn the ropes to succeed.

In his rookie year, more practice time helped Mahomes to adjust to the speed of the NFL without being overwhelmed. Since then, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to eight AFC West titles and three Super Bowl wins. Therefore, the Chiefs’ patience with a young Mahomes has set him up to be a future Hall of Famer like former QB Tom Brady. 

You see, Brady is an example that every top QB prospect inevitably gets compared to. But remember how in his rookie season with the New England Patriots, Brady didn’t start a single game? Drew Bledsoe remained the franchise quarterback, and Brady simply learned behind him. It wasn’t until the Week 3 game of the 2001 season that Brady made his NFL debut as a starter. 

Before that game, Bledsoe had led the Patriots to a 0-2 record and suffered a serious injury. But as Brady took over the Patriots’ offense, he led them to a 44-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. In that game, Brady completed 13 of 23 passes for 168 yards, and he never relinquished the starting job again. 

That season, Brady led the Patriots to an 11-3 record as a starter and a Super Bowl victory. Despite being a sixth-round pick, Brady looked prepared for that big moment because the Patriots had the patience to help him grow. 

“I went to New England, and I was developed by Coach Belichick and the offensive staff there,” Tom Brady said in an interview back in 2024. “And I didn’t start my first year. I think it’s just a tragedy that we’re forcing these rookies to play early. But the reality is the only reason they are is because we’ve dumbed the game down, which has allowed them to play. It used to be thought of at a higher level. We used to spend hours and hours in the offseason, in training camp, trying to be a little better the next year.”

Even a QB with seven Super Bowl rings believes that more time to learn equals development for rookies, so I believe the Raiders must rethink handing the keys to their offense immediately to Mendoza. 

Fernando Mendoza is still a work in progress

During his three seasons in college, Fernando Mendoza recorded 8,247 yards, 71 TDs, and 22 INTs. But Mendoza rose to prominence during the 2025 season, when he recorded 3,535 yards, 41 TDs, and six INTs. Mendoza also won the Heisman Trophy and led the Hoosiers to a 16-0 record en route to a National Championship victory. That résumé explains why Mendoza is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick, but we know that it doesn’t necessarily translate to immediate NFL success.

Tom Brady believes that a team must create the right environment for Mendoza to win in the NFL. But the Raiders are still trying to get their house in order. After a 3-14 season, the Raiders are entering a rebuilding phase under new head coach Klint Kubiak. That situation feels eerily similar to what happened in Dallas in 1989.

Back then, the Cowboys drafted QB Troy Aikman with the No. 1 overall pick after having a 3-13 record in 1988. Then, Cowboys’ new head coach Jimmy Johnson started Aikman right away, but he went 0-11 as a starter during his rookie season. Yes, Aikman eventually helped the Cowboys win three Super Bowls, but why should Mendoza also have to learn the hard way to success if he doesn’t have to?

What’s more concerning is that Mendoza’s college tape shows that he still has areas to improve. One major issue is how quickly Mendoza processes pressure and releases the ball. Even behind a strong offensive line at Indiana, Mendoza took 25 sacks in 2025 and recorded a 22.5% sacks-to-pressure ratio.

Now consider this: last season, Geno Smith took 55 sacks in Las Vegas. Put Mendoza behind that same OL in the AFC West from Week 1, and he could take even more hits this year. This does not mean that Mendoza can’t adapt to the Raiders’ offense. But since taking too many hits early can derail the rookie’s development, Kirk Cousins could come in handy for the Raiders. 

Kirk Cousins can keep the Raiders competitive as a starter

In the last five seasons, No. 1 overall pick QBs didn’t have an experienced starter ahead of them on the depth chart. As a result, they were expected to lead from day one, but that won’t be the case for Fernando Mendoza. Raider Nation still has questions about whether the team overpaid for Kirk Cousins. But I think dismissing Cousins as merely a mentor or emergency solution would be a mistake.

In over 14 seasons in the NFL, Cousins has started 167 games, recording 44,700 yards, 298 TDs, and 131 INTs. Cousins has also consistently ranked among the NFL’s most efficient passers and has finished multiple seasons with a top-10 passer rating. In 2022, while playing for the Minnesota Vikings, Cousins even led the NFL with 11 one-score wins and 8 comeback victories, proving he can handle high-pressure situations.

Even in the later stages of his career, Cousins has remained productive. During the 2025 season, he lost the starting job to Michael Penix Jr., but still stepped in and delivered when the Falcons needed. While playing 10 games in place of an injured Penix, Cousins went 5-3 as a starter and recorded 1,721 yards, 10 TDs, and five INTs.

Now at 37, Cousins sees his stop at Las Vegas as an opportunity to finish his career on a high note. He also has a familiarity with Klint Kubiak’s system from their time together in Minnesota. Therefore, Cousins can be a valuable asset in the Raiders’ long-term plan to stabilize their QB position with Mendoza.