For most of the 2025 season, the MVP discussion has been a two-quarterback race centered around the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford and the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye. As the league edges closer to the conference championship games, the conversation hasn’t shifted much. Now, former return specialist Devin Hester Sr. sat for an exclusive interview with EssentiallySports to show where his choice leans.

“I like Matthew Stafford,” Hester told EssentiallySports’ Ryan Ward. “Just because of what he did this year. Look at how many touchdowns he threw. He’s playing with almost 40 right now, played over close to about 20 years in the league right now, and this is the most touchdowns he ever threw in his career.”

The choice came down to the two names, and Hester sided with Stafford. It’s not hard to agree with him. Stafford has put together one of the strongest seasons of his long career, finishing the regular season with 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdown passes, and just 8 interceptions.

He was rewarded along the way, earning his third Pro Bowl selection and landing on the first-team All-Pro list. Still, it wouldn’t be fair to dismiss what Drake Maye has done.

Objectively, this hasn’t been a case of one quarterback clearly overlapping the other. In only his second season, Maye has looked remarkably comfortable. He threw for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, and his efficiency matched that of a 20-year veteran at times.

Statistically, he checked nearly every advanced box: first overall in EPA per dropback (0.26), second when under pressure, top three against both the blitz and non-blitz looks. His completion percentage over expectation topped nine percent, the best mark since the NFL Next Gen Stats era began in 2016.

Still, MVP races rarely live in a vacuum. Recency bias is real, and voters are human.

Matthew Stafford came out firing early in the year and, by midseason, had separated himself as the favorite. Since throwing just one touchdown in Week 6, he mostly had games with more than two.

Maye, meanwhile, had a couple of outings without a passing touchdown. His efficiency never dipped much, though, and he quarterbacked the Patriots through a 10-game winning streak on the way to a 14-win season. But when the regular season closed, the contrast was pretty evident.

Stafford tossed four touchdowns without an interception in a win over division rival Arizona Cardinals. Maye, in his final regular-season game, managed just one touchdown against the Miami Dolphins. That last impression matters.

As a result, the betting odds have tilted slightly toward Stafford. He’s currently listed at -135, while Maye sits at +105.

When things are this close, smaller factors can creep in.

How Stafford could separate himself from Maye

Age is one of the factors that could play a role here. Stafford is putting up his best numbers at 37. Maye, on the other hand, is a sophomore. Fair or not, many voters will find Stafford’s season more impressive given where he is in his career. There’s also the sense that Stafford may not have many more chances at this award, while Maye almost certainly will.

However, it is hard to ignore what really puts Stafford ahead.

Certainly, Maye has put up good enough numbers. But the Patriots also had one of the easiest schedules this season. Moreover, his upskilling would also go to their first-year coach, Mike Vrabel. He is also surrounded by a good supporting cast who can make an impact on the plays, such as Stefon Diggs, for instance.

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Stafford, on the other hand, has been developing over the course of his five years with the Rams, bringing in a Super Bowl in his very first year after being traded from the Detroit Lions. Besides that, something else is working in Stafford’s favor.

He has already been named the Associated Press First-Team All-Pro quarterback. That vote comes from the same 50-member panel that decides MVP. It doesn’t lock anything in, but it surely adds weight to the conversation.

Voting wrapped up immediately after the regular season, before the playoffs began. Fifty media members submitted ballots ranking their top five players, with points assigned based on those rankings. The league will hand out the award at the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday, February 5, 2025, three days before the Super Bowl, at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.

What’s intriguing is that, for Devin Hester Sr., neither of the two will win the Super Bowl this season. In fact, he simply named one of his former teams: “I feel like right now, if I had to put my money on it, it’d be Seattle.”

Interestingly, Stafford will be playing against Seattle in a matter of hours. With that, Hester is essentially saying that while he wants the almost 38-year-old to win, he wants him to lose his very next matchup.

Regardless, we’re just days away from the conference matchups, and the MVP talks can happen at a later time. In fact, it would be the last thing on both of their minds right now.

Neither Stafford nor Maye would be thinking about the MVP

As expected, both Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye have done their part and carried their teams into the conference championship games. Stafford has the Rams lined up for a date with the Seahawks, while Maye and the Patriots will take on the Broncos, a team that ripped off an 11-game winning streak during the regular season.

With that much at stake, neither quarterback is thinking about MVP ballots right now. The focus is much narrower. For Stafford, the challenge is pretty obvious.

He’s going up against a Seahawks defense that has been on a different level. Against defenses coordinated by Mike Macdonald, Stafford has generally held his own. In four games, he’s completed about 57 percent of his passes. He has 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Encouraging numbers, but this version of Seattle is something else.

The Seahawks have allowed just four passing touchdowns over seven games. Three of those came against the Rams in Week 16. Strip that out, and Seattle has surrendered a maximum of only two touchdowns to every other opponent combined over that stretch. They showed that dominance last week.

Seattle smothered the 49ers in the Divisional Round, holding San Francisco to 236 total yards and just six points. The Niners never crossed Seattle’s 22-yard line. Add in the fact that Stafford is dealing with a sprained finger, and the margin for error narrows further.

He played through it last week, but it showed. Matthew Stafford finished with 258 passing yards and no touchdowns in the Rams’ win over the Bears. That was enough to move on, but it won’t be nearly enough against Seattle’s top-ranking defense.

On the other side, Maye has his own concerns, and they start up front. The Patriots’ offensive line has been shaky, especially in the postseason. Against the Houston Texans, New England struggled to contain Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who combined for five sacks.

Over two playoff games, the Patriots have allowed ten sacks, and Maye has fumbled six times. That’s a dangerous pattern heading into a matchup with Denver.

The Broncos finished third in the league in pressure rate during the regular season, and they come at quarterbacks in waves. Nik Bonitto led the way with 14 sacks, but he’s far from alone. Jonathon Cooper added eight, John Franklin-Myers had 7.5, and Zach Allen chipped in seven. For a Patriots team that has surrendered 57 sacks across 19 games this season, it’s a legitimate concern.

The one piece of good news for Maye is on the other sideline.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is out for the season with an ankle fracture. In theory, Maye should have an edge over Denver’s backup. In practice, he knows that doesn’t buy him anything if he’s constantly under siege. Moreover, it was Denver’s sixth-ranked defense that was always the threat. Adding to their strengths is the home-field advantage, which also brings an elemental advantage for the Broncos.

At this point, it’s widely assumed the MVP award will land with one of these two quarterbacks. Neither has won it before. Neither is thinking about that now. Conference championships have a way of narrowing your vision. For Stafford and Maye, the only thing that matters is getting through one more game and earning a trip to the Super Bowl.