When a quarterback picks up an oblique injury just days before a playoff game, the natural reaction is panic. But for the Seattle Seahawks, Sam Darnold’s physical ailment might be the least of their worries heading into Saturday’s divisional showdown against the San Francisco 49ers. The real question isn’t whether Darnold can play; it’s whether they should trust him when it matters most. And ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith has delivered a brutal warning.

“Since the brother threw four interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams, they’ve been relatively conservative,” Smith said on First Take when discussing the upcoming matchup. “Trying to play mistake-free football. The brother’s got about eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in the last eight games. Now, Seattle hasn’t lost. So that philosophical shift has benefited them. … But I’ll be damned if I’m not concerned about Sam Darnold and his potential to blow it. I haven’t gotten over what I saw in the postseason last year, that meltdown in the postseason.”

That meltdown came against these same Rams in the 2025 Wild Card round. Darnold, suiting up for the Minnesota Vikings back then, was sacked nine times and committed two turnovers in a humiliating playoff exit. The Vikings’ season ended with their quarterback getting bruised behind a crumbling O-Line. But the scars run deeper than just one playoff catastrophe.

Darnold threw four picks in Week 11 against the Rams this season, resulting in a 21-19 loss. Since that four-pick disaster, Seattle has relied more on the run game and allowed their defense free rein to terrorize opponents. But cut to Week 16’s 38-37 overtime victory over the Rams, Darnold threw two picks and took 4 sacks. Hardly the numbers that inspire postseason confidence.

“This is the playoffs. He is going up against [49ers head coach] Kyle Shanahan,” Smith emphasized. “There is something to be concerned about with Sam Darnold. That is what he can do. He can ball, he’s not a scrub, he can make things happen. But he can also hurt you and lose a football game for you, particularly at this time of year.”

The tape doesn’t lie. Darnold can certainly cook, but he can also serve up turnovers like a Thanksgiving buffet. To counter that, the Seahawks have found something that already works, and it doesn’t involve asking Darnold to win them a game. But will they rely on that strategy against the Niners?

The Seattle dilemma: run it, or risk it?

Seattle discovered a formula that works. In their Week 18 demolition of San Francisco, the Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III ran wild for 97 yards, and Zach Charbonnet followed suit with 74 yards and a touchdown to victory. The message was clear: this team can win without depending on its volatile quarterback.

NFL.com’s analysis called Darnold “a notoriously unreliable, if not disastrous quarterback in the biggest games,” questioning whether Seattle should replicate their ground-heavy approach. Walker already has 1,027 rushing yards with 5 touchdowns on the year. Charbonnet has cemented himself with 730 yards and a whopping 12 touchdowns. The logic is sound: lean on Walker and Charbonnet, protect Darnold’s health, and insulate him from high-pressure situations where he has historically crumbled.

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But playoff football rarely cooperates with conservative game plans. San Fran’s defense, ranked 11th against the run, just surrendered 140 yards to the Philadelphia Eagles and allowed a season-high 180 yards in Week 18. In contrast, Seattle’s rushing attack has averaged 140.6 yards from Weeks 10-18. But the Niners will have adjusted since the Wild Card against Philly last week.

Niners defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will see the ground game coming, especially having lost to it in Week 18. If the 49ers load the box and dare Darnold to beat them through the air, Seattle faces an impossible choice: stick with a stagnant ground game or unleash the same quarterback who imploded in his last playoff appearance.

Saturday will reveal which version of Sam Darnold shows up – the baller or the liability. For Seattle’s Super Bowl hopes, that uncertainty might be more dangerous than any oblique injury.