Some problems can’t be solved by meeting them head-on. Sometimes the smartest move is keeping the threat as far away as possible. That’s the premise Mike Tomlin leaned into this week as the Steelers prepared for a Bills team built around one of the league’s most explosive forces. If Pittsburgh wants a chance, Tomlin says the answer begins long before Josh Allen touches the ball.

His message was simple, limit Allen by limiting his opportunities. “Time of possession is big. We got to minimize our exposure to Josh Allen. How do you do that? We got to be good on possession downs on defense, but we also got to be good on possession downs on offense. And a component of that is being a very manageable possession downs,” Tomlin said.

Tomlin pointed to those numbers as proof of concept. “Last week we talked about the Bears for instance, were second in league and third down conversions. We talked about how important was it for us to be in third and manageable. I think we had seven or so third down in three or less situations in that game. I think we converted six of the seven. And so that’s how you stay on the field. That’s how you possess the ball. I think we had 34 minutes or something time of possession a week ago,” Tomlin said.

Yet the emphasis wasn’t only on offense. Tomlin made clear that possession downs on defense matter just as much. Force stops early. Avoid extended drives. Shrink Allen’s rhythm before it forms. In his view, the Steelers’ best defensive stand begins with their offense buying time and their defense getting off the field.

As Pittsburgh shapes its approach for Sunday, Tomlin’s directive lands with purpose. The Steelers don’t need to outgun Allen. They need to outlast him. Reduce his snaps. Control the pace. Decide the moments. And if they succeed at that, Tomlin believes the game’s final stages become theirs to influence, not Buffalo’s to dictate.

And as Tomlin lays out the plan for Allen, the bigger picture comes into focus: history, stakes, and what this matchup means for Pittsburgh.

Steelers lean on history as playoff stakes rise against Bills

The Steelers don’t get many chances to rewrite a season in one afternoon, but this weekend offers one. A home game. A playoff hinge point. And an opponent that has punished them more often than not in recent years. Yet the setting matters, and Pittsburgh’s history with Buffalo inside its own walls refuses to be ignored.

The stats reveal part of the story. Pittsburgh boasts a 10-3 record at home against Buffalo. Most of their recent losses have come in Buffalo, where they’ve dropped four out of their last five matchups. The only time they faced the Bills in that stretch was back in 2019, when Josh Allen led a victory over a Steelers team quarterbacked by Duck Hodges, who was stepping in for the injured Ben Roethlisberger.

This time around, the Steelers are expecting Aaron Rodgers to return after he missed the loss to Chicago. His presence is a boost, but his history against Buffalo doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Rodgers has gone up against the Bills seven times, winning just three of those battles. His last win against them was during his very first game as a Jet.

However, Pittsburgh understands that this matchup is more than just a duel between quarterbacks. They’ve managed to take down teams this season that reflect their usual AFC North toughness: Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Minnesota. Yet, they’ve had a tougher time against teams that excel on both sides of the ball. Buffalo certainly fits that bill. The Bills have the league’s third-best total offense and rank fifth in points per game. Their balanced attack is reminiscent of the Seattle team that overwhelmed Pittsburgh earlier this year.

While the Bills possess the firepower, the Steelers can lean on a favorable home history and a ball-control game plan to write the next chapter in this rivalry. Can the Steelers pick up the win?