When TJ Watt did not show up for mandatory minicamp in June 2025, fines became a real possibility. He had already missed the entire OTAs, and holding out from mandatory practice, even in the face of penalties, was his way of making the case for a new contract. The deal finally came on July 17, making Watt the highest-paid non-QB for a while. Now, less than a year later, that deal carries a different label.

Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon recently identified the most overpaid player on every NFL roster following a peak 2026 free agency. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the name highlighted was TJ Watt.

“He’s had an incredible career, but Watt’s three-year, $123 million contract makes him the third-highest-paid defensive player in the league,” Gagnon writes. “His sack numbers have plummeted in back-to-back campaigns entering his age-32 season. The eight-time Pro Bowler is not even close to being worth that kind of money these days.”

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Watt’s $123 million deal, stretching to 2028, includes $108 million fully guaranteed and a $42 million cap hit in 2026. But the Steelers didn’t really get tricked in the moment. When Watt forced the issue last June, he was coming off consecutive All-Pro selections and had led the league in sacks (thrice), tackles for loss, and forced fumbles since getting drafted in 2017.

Myles Garrett’s $40 million-per-year contract with the Cleveland Browns had set the market, and Pittsburgh’s $41 million answer felt calculated. But what comes next became the problem. A healthy Watt in 2026, producing double-digit sacks, ended this conversation entirely. He’s already achieved that in six of his nine seasons. But he will be 32 in October, and that age could get in his way.

Micah Parsons signed a four-year, $188 million deal with the Green Bay Packers last season, and the subsequent torn ACL in December became a cautionary case study in what big-money edge defenders face. One serious injury to Watt, and Pittsburgh is locked in until 2028, with nowhere to pivot.

And for the Steelers, Watt’s ‘Overpaid’ tag comes with another headache. One that could decide whether Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh for the 2026 season.

The Aaron Rodgers dilemma intensifies

The TJ Watt deal doesn’t sit in isolation. It shares a cap sheet with every other commitment Pittsburgh needs to make. And right now, the most urgent one is at quarterback. 

Former Steelers quarterback Charlie Batch took to his Snap Count podcast this week and spoke about Aaron Rodgers’ asking price to suit up again.

“The Steelers would like him to come back, yes, but it’s not going to be at that $13 million number,” Batch noted. “I’m sure his representatives are wanting something closer to $30 million, and you hope that, somewhere, you meet in the middle.”

Rodgers’ one-year deal last season was $13.65 million, with $10 million guaranteed and carrying heavy incentives to push the payday to a potential $19.5 million. Per Over the Cap, he only managed to earn a little north of $14 million.

This offseason, the popular read is that Pittsburgh is waiting on Aaron, but that’s not all. He’s proven that he can still make elite plays and bring wins: a 10-6 record, 3,322 passing yards with 24 touchdowns last season with a 94.8 passer rating. Now, his camp may not be okay with just $13-14 million again. But a $30 million ask would only cause problems for Steel City.

TJ Watt’s $42 million and wide receiver DK Metcalf’s $31 million are the biggest cap hits for the Steelers this offseason. With every other deal accounted for, they only have about $21.4 million left in effective cap space. How general manager Omar Khan can shuffle the cap to make room for Rodgers (and the upcoming draft additions) might determine who lines up under center. 

The Steelers built their model on TJ Watt’s dominance paired with affordable quarterback play. But that model is gone. They have to pay for both now, and one side of that equation is probably going to come up short. They didn’t overpay for Watt, but it seems they paid him at exactly the wrong time.