The Pittsburgh Steelers underwent major shifts this offseason following a Wild Card loss to the Houston Texans. After legendary head coach Mike Tomlin stepped down, the team hired former Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy to take the helm. Despite these aggressive changes aimed at a deep postseason run, NFL.com analysts don’t expect a playoff appearance for the team anytime soon.

NFL.com had 19 analysts vote to predict every division champion and wild-card teams ahead of the 2026 season. Due to a highly competitive AFC, analysts project the Pittsburgh Steelers to miss out completely.

The analysts favor the Baltimore Ravens to win the division, with the Cincinnati Bengals as another contender to win and make the playoffs. They did not even add the Steelers to the list of potential Wild Card teams.

The Steelers have been one of the most successful teams in the NFL, winning the AFC Central and North title a total of 25 times, which is 14 more than the Bengals, who stand in second place. Not only that, but the Steelers have also won six Super Bowls in 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979, 2005, and 2008.

Of course, the Tomlin era played a huge part in this success. The former head coach had a 19-year run from 2007 to the 2025 season, never having a losing season, including winning the 2008 Super Bowl 27-23 against the Arizona Cardinals.

Though Tomlin was an iconic figure in Pittsburgh’s history, the team hadn’t gotten past the first game of the postseason in the last six playoff appearances. However, the team did qualify for the playoffs for the past three consecutive years, also winning the AFC North title last year.

But with him gone, the Steelers are going through a transitional period. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers back under center and McCarthy guiding him, the Steelers are dreaming of a deep playoff run this season. But the analysts view this roster overhaul through a much more doubtful lens.

Steelers Overhaul Roster Around Rodgers, but Analysts Remain Skeptical

Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers, who signed with the Steelers last season, is entering his final and 22nd season in the NFL. But what makes it even more special is that he is reunited with McCarthy. The duo won a championship together in the 2010 season and spent 13 years together before McCarthy was let go by the Packers during the 2018 season.

While Rodgers decided against walking away as soon as McCarthy signed, calling it a “full circle” moment, McCarthy said that it is “pure joy” to coach him in his final year.

With these two leaders side by side, the Steelers have made several changes, acquiring wide receiver Michael Pittman from the Indianapolis Colts while also picking up Germie Bernard in the second round of the 2026 NFL Draft. The team also added four quarterbacks to its 53-man roster, with Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, and Drew Allar all on the roster, making it Rodgers’ first time sharing a roster with three backup QBs.

Other notable additions include RB Rico Dowdle, CB Jamel Dean, TE Robert Tonyan, S Jaquan Brisker, S Rayshawn Jenkins, and LT Max Iheanachor. Despite these additions, analysts Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, and Danny Parkins of the First Things First talk show don’t consider them favorites.

Wright placed the Steelers at No. 3 in his AFC North predictions.

“I think they finish 6-11, but what is Aaron Rodgers going to look like once the weather turns cold? … He turns 43 this year,” Wright said. “I would be surprised if, during that stretch that Drew Allar doesn’t start a game or two…I do not think Aaron Rodgers will be the starting quarterback all year.”

Meanwhile, Broussard questioned McCarthy’s last two-year reign with the Packers along with Rodgers, saying that this would be “the first losing season for the Steelers since 2003.” At the same time, Parkins predicted eight wins all season for the Steelers.

It will be intriguing to see how the Steelers handle so many new players and a new head coach all at once. The Steelers finished their preseason with a 1-2 record and will face the Atlanta Falcons on September 13 at Acrisure Stadium.