When a team has a good NFL season, fans spend the entire offseason excited for the team to take that next step. Optimism, hope and a slight delusion seep into people’s minds throughout the Spring. Every fan believes their team got better, but the harsh reality is that not every offseason move will make an impact.

The Washington Commanders, Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders were viewed as winners last offseason. None of those teams made a jump in 2025. There were surprising NFL teams last season who made a jump, and the real question is whether those teams can stay successful in 2026. It leaves the question of which teams will regress in 2026? Here are three potential teams that could struggle in the upcoming season.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos went 11-2 last season in one-score games in 2025. It’s hard to replicate that type of success from season to season. A good example is the 2024 Chiefs, who went 12-0 in one-score games and made a Super Bowl run. In 2025, they went 1-9 and missed the postseason. The Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 and made moves this past offseason, indicating the team is going all in on a Super Bowl run.

The trade for Miami Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle was a clear indicator that Broncos general manager George Paton understands the winning window he has in front of him. The hope is for Waddle to help the offense take a step in the air. Denver ranked 19th in the NFL in explosive play rate, a number that needs to go up in 2026.

Defensively, the Broncos are ready to have another dominant season. That side of the ball shouldn’t regress; the main question mark outside of the explosive plays in the rushing attack. The Broncos ranked 18th in the NFL in EPA/Rush at -0.04. Opponents were able to stack the box at 32 percent because they weren’t afraid of the Broncos’ passing attack. Waddle should help alleviate this issue.

So, if Waddle is a key solution to the Broncos main problem, how will this team regress? Winning 14 games in the NFL is tough and hard to replicate. It’s even harder when 11 of those wins came in one-score games. Barely beating the Commanders, Chiefs (Week 17 with Chris Oladokun starting) and the New York Jets aren’t inspiring wins. If the Broncos struggle to have better starts in 2026, there’s no guarantee they’ll come out victorious every time.

Chicago Bears

For Chicago Bears fans, the Caleb Williams hype train has left this planet. For good reason, everyone wants to look at the 58.1 percent completion percentage, but for what Williams does, it shouldn’t matter. The sack avoidance is elite, and he ranked 14th in the NFL in EPA/dropback with +0.05.

The retirement of center Drew Dalmen was surprising, but general manager Ryan Poles did a good job of addressing it. Signing Garrett Bradbury and drafting Logan Jones gives head coach Ben Johnson options throughout the 2026 season.

So, what’s the Bears’ issue? The defense. Chicago made a comeback; it seemed like every single week in the 2025 season, and it was built on the team leading the league in turnovers with 22. The roster is primed in the secondary to make it all happen again with the addition of Dillion Thieneman and Coby Bryant at the safety position. It’s the defensive line that could prove troublesome in 2026.

Chicago ranked 27th in pressure rate with 31.6 for 2025, with edge Montez Sweat carrying the load. He led the team with 65 total pressures, and the next closest was Gervon Dexter with 43. The lack of pass rush was a main reason the team fell in the Divisional Round against the Los Angeles Rams. Sweat led the team with four pressures, and slot corner Kyler Gordon was second with three due to defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s aggressive scheme. The team totaled 14 compared to the Rams’ 24 in the game.

Poles made minor additions to the defensive line, adding Kentavius Street and Neville Gallimore this offseason, who will likely be rotational players in the 2026 season.

The Bears will likely be in the playoff mix again. Having Williams and Johnson is a lethal duo that is hard to stop. But when the playoffs hit and the weather drops, the trenches are typically the deciding factor. It proved true for the Bears last season and may be the reason they take a step back in 2026.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars surprised the NFL in Liam Coen’s first year with the organization. The team fell to 4-3 early in the season but finished the year on a 9-1 run, and timely plays helped the Jaguars make this happen.

Coen’s offense helped quaterback Trevor Lawrence have his best season since 2022 in the NFL. Lawrence had 30 big-time throws and a career high in touchdown passes with 32. The offensive efficiency was evident, with the team ranking ninth in red zone efficiency and 18th in third-down conversion rate.

Defensively, the Jaguars ranked first in the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 85.6 yards per game. Against the pass is where the team struggled, ranking 21st in the NFL. Injuries played a part, and cornerback Travis Hunter is expected to come back healthy, hopefully making an impact on the secondary.

Roster-wise, this team is ready to make a run. No real improvements were made this offseason, but it’s the same roster that just went 13-4 and won the AFC South. That’s exactly the reason this team may regress in 2026: no real improvement.

Coaching-wise, Coen proved he’s one of the best, and fans should have faith in him. The entire AFC South got better this offseason and will be coming for that title. The Tennessee Titans likely won’t make a run, but the other two teams in the division are locked and loaded to compete. This team will be in the playoff mix, and Lawrence could take a jump, being in Year 2 of the Coen system. But with a confusing draft and the loss of impact players this offseason, the Jaguars may not repeat as AFC South champs in 2026.