Does your favorite team have an excellent possibility of competing for the 2025 NFL playoffs? With the 2025 NFL season just a few months away, this is the most important question on the radar. Obviously, all 32 NFL teams will continue to improve their roster with the addition of deserving players and movements of coaches in their squad before heading to the new NFL season. And, teams’ offseason training programming, including mandatory minicamps, showcases their determination for their new campaign.

Well, to understand the ground reality of the teams, ESPN’s Aaron Schatz surveyed the whole landscape and provided the best and worst-case scenarios for each team heading into 2025. Surprisingly, 25 NFL teams have gone from last to first in their division in a single season since the NFL restructured to eight four-team divisions in 2002. Shockingly, there were no such teams in 2024 that had gone from worst to first. But, in 2023, the Houston Texans became such a team with an improved record of 10-7 after finishing with a 3-13-1 record in 2022. After noticing the team’s genuine development, Schatz ranked the NFL’s most likely worst-to-first teams for the 2025 season. The ESPN reporter mentioned a total of eight teams that finished in last place of each division in 2024, ranking them by their odds based on their chances of winning their divisions in the 2025 season.

The 49ers top the list to go from worst to best

There are three major reasons that suggest that Kyle Shanahan’s team, which had a 6-11 record in 2024, is likely to go from a last-place finish to a division title in the 2025 NFL season. The reasons are listed below.

1. Most favorable and easiest projected schedule: Amazingly, the 49ers are placed at the top for a bounce-back season because of their favorable schedule based on opponents’ 2024 win percentages. In addition to their division games, the 49ers’ schedule has no complexity as they play the Browns, Giants, and the Bears. The Rams‘ schedule is considerably more difficult, featuring games against the Lions, Ravens, and the Eagles.

2. Strong performance: The 49ers had some good performances in the 2024 season, ranking ninth in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Despite their losing record, they snagged 14 place in the NFL’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) rankings, signifying they have an excellent platform upon which to expand.

3. Players improved health: Amazingly, many standout players, including TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey, OT Trent Williams, QB Brock Purdy, and WR Brandon Aiyuk, will make their return for the upcoming season after recovering from their injuries.

Hence, their superior schedule and improved fitness should help them, giving them a clear route to come back in the NFC West.

Bears receive the 2 rank

The Bears completed the 2024 season with a 5-12 record, ranking last in the NFC North. They lost many games due to the coaching blunders of Matt Eberflus and his staff. Despite finishing last season with a 22nd-place rank in FPI, the Bears are considered above-average going into the 2025 season.

ESPN’s Aaron Schatz claimed that the Bears’ schedule is a major factor that might impede them this season. “The biggest issue holding the Bears back this season is that they have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL,” Schatz mentioned, referring to his DVOA rankings. Additionally, ESPN reporter stated that only Minnesota is predicted to drop in 2025 after the other three NFC North teams, including the Packers, Vikings, and Lions, all qualified for the postseason in 2024.

Patriots earn the third spot in ESPN’s list

The Patriots were the AFC East’s lowest ranking team, completing the 2023 and 2024 seasons at last position. Hence, ESPN’s Schatz considered the Patriots to be the third team to go from worst to first. Clearly, on the basis of last two seasons’ performances, two head coaches lost their jobs. And now, with the hiring of HC Mike Vrabel in January 2025, the Patriots gained fresh confidence. And, with a talented QB like Drake Maye, the Patriots are expecting a better outcome this season.

ESPN’s Schatz highlighted Drake Maye’s last season impressive stats. With a 2024 QBR of 58.6, Patriots QB Maye placed “17th out of all qualified quarterbacks”, aiming to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. “The surroundings are supposed to be better this season, but how much better are they?” he mentioned.

Additionally, New England also added several new players to improve their 2025 season roster. Besides hiring Vrabel, Patriots added veteran Morgan Moses and rookie Will Campbell to improve their offensive side. They also acquired WR Kyle Williams and RB TreVeyon Henderson. On the other hand, some other defensive additions including LB Robert Spillane and CB Carlton Davis III could also upgrade the team’s next season performance.

Clearly, the roster’s high ranking on Schatz’s list likely explains their ideal position to go from worst to first from free agency to the draft.

“With all this added talent, plus simple regression to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than a year ago. They also have an easy schedule that ranks 28th based on average projected DVOA of their opponents,” he also mentioned.

The New Orleans Saints are placed at 4th

The Saints, after finishing last season with a 5-12 record, were last in the FPI ranking. ESPN’s Schatz considered the Saints the fourth likely team to go from worst to first. Despite a low ranking of 31 in Saints’ offensive projection in FPI and 32 in their defensive projection, the Saints are considered to have a better chance of winning their division than other teams. And, this is because the NFC South’s other three team’s low rankings in the league. Currently, the Buccaneers rank 14th, the Falcons 26th, and the Panthers 28th in FPI.

Additionally, Schatz also listed the reason behind New Orleans’ bottom rank. He claimed that Tyler Shough, the rookie quarterback who could start if Derek Carr retires, is one of the reasons New Orleans is ranked last. Even after Jayden Daniels‘ incredible 2024 campaign, rookie quarterbacks are still seen negatively in FPI. They are usually not likely to have successful seasons, particularly if they are second-round selections like Shough.

Tennessee Titans at 5th

ESPN reporter gave the same reason for the Titans‘ projected finish for next season, with the reason being: “You can’t expect rookie QBs to have good seasons.” Schatz took Bears QB Caleb Williams’s example as he finished with a 28 QBR out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks last season. Additionally, he also highlighted Titans QB Will Levis’s lower ranking in QBR. And, even Titans rookie quarterback Cameron Ward also falls into the same category. Therefore, even if Ward has a below-average season, Tennessee will probably benefit.

Additionally, the Titans’ defense ranks 30th in DVOA, indicating that they have more serious problems on the other side of the ball. With veteran CB L’Jarius Sneed, who is recovering from injury, there is plenty of optimism for the upcoming season.

The Las Vegas Raiders are at number 6

ESPN’s Aaron Schatz gave the 6 rank to the Raiders. Given that the Broncos and Chargers were both playoff teams the previous season, the Raiders’ chances of finishing first seem much less likely. If Kansas City fails for whatever reason, including injury, Los Angeles or Denver has a far greater chance of winning the AFC West.

But with experienced quarterback Geno Smith joining the team, the prospect of Las Vegas making the playoffs isn’t entirely outlandish. Despite being sixth in the overall division odds, Las Vegas is fourth among the eight teams in the playoffs.

The New York Giants have the 7th number

New York‘s schedule, which is ranked as the most difficult in the NFL according to both FPI and projected DVOA, will cause some problems. The matchups against the NFC North and AFC West come first, followed by the Giants’ own division, which now boasts a formidable Commanders squad.

Given that the Giants are currently ranked 27th in the NFL after ranking 31st heading into the 2024 season, it’s somewhat of an astonishment that FPI doesn’t put them lower. But, with the addition of skillful QBs like Russell Wilson, Jaxson Dart, and Jameis Winston on their team, it is expected that they will have a strong season ahead. ESPN reporter also believes that the Giants have a better defense as they added edge rusher Abdul Carter to an exciting pass rush.

The Browns get the 8th rank

ESPN’s Aaron Schatz puts the Browns at No. 8 in his list to go from last to first. This is because Browns have a challenging schedule and a chaotic quarterback room as it is not decided yet whether rookies, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, will be starting for this team instead of Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco.

Instead of attempting to qualify for the playoffs this year, the Browns will be more interested in spotting their future prospects.