Just like yesterday, we dived into the likelihood of offensive rookies winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and today we’ll do the same for the defensive rookies. This class didn’t have a ton of blue-chip talent, but there are still a ton of fun prospects and intriguing options when looking at who’s favored to win the award.

We’ll give each player a rating out of 10 for the likelihood of winning the award, with three players receiving a nine out of 10. There’s some exciting scheme fits within this class, so without further ado, let’s get into it.

Odds are from DraftKings 

David Bailey, +450

Likelihood: 8/10

Bailey led the FBS in sacks in his final year at Texas Tech, which is a main reason he’s the main favorite to win the award. The team brought in former Cincinnati Bengal Joseph Ossai to line up opposite Bailey. Ossai totaled five sacks last season with the Bengals, giving me more confidence in Bailey winning the award.

He’s not a top-three favorite of mine in terms of likelihood, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the award with the amount of comfort he shows when rushing the passer.

Rueben Bain Jr., +550

Likelihood: 9/10

We all saw the video of Bain walking out of the green room after being selected in Pittsburgh, right? He looks like a man on a mission and is tired of hearing criticism about his short arms. Bain offers elite pass-rush ability and is better at playing the run compared to a player like Bailey.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles runs an aggressive defensive scheme that features stunts and blitzes, which is well-suited to Bain’s size. On top of it all, Bain instantly becomes the best pass rusher Tampa has.

Arvell Reese, +650

Likelihood: 6/10

The New York Giants front seven is loaded with pass rushers, with the likes of Abdul Carter and Brian Burns. The team plans to use Reese more like an off-ball linebacker, specifically the will backer. There’s potential for him to creep up from time to time and rush the passer, but he’ll likely be relied on to play sideline-to-sideline.

Giants will line him up next to Tremaine Edmunds on the second level, and I love the talent Reese is, but I imagine it’ll be hard for him to win this award, lining up against the talent the Giants already have in the front-seven of the defense.

Sonny Styles, +750

Likelihood: 9/10

The Washington Commanders have rebranded their entire defense, adding a ton of new talent within the front-seven. Washington signed former Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal, but even with that addition, I imagine Styles will be the main man leading the defense.

He fits in the Dan Quinn scheme perfectly and can make an impact on all three downs with the elite athleticism and range he has. We just saw a linebacker win the award in Carson Schwesinger with the Cleveland Browns, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Styles makes it two linebackers in a row.

Caleb Downs, +750

Likelihood: 4/10

This rating isn’t because I don’t have faith in Downs as a player. He was my second-highest rated player in the draft, and I feel he’ll thrive in the Christian Parker defense. The reality is that the last safety to win the award was Mark Carrier with the Chicago Bears in 1990.

It’s a rare award to win for safeties, but if there was one to break the trend, I believe it could be Downs. Still, I have to be realistic and give him a lower rating because of what history tells us.

Mansoor Delane, +1000

Likelihood: 9/10

The more I’ve thought about this fit with the Kansas City Chiefs, the more I’ve loved it. Defense coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is an aggressive caller and will let Delane play man coverage, which is something he strives to do.

Excited to see how this pairing develops throughout the season, but don’t be rushed when Delane dominates in the role he’s given.

Akheem Mesidor, +1600

Likelihood: 7/10

Mesidor was an NFL-ready prospect, being older at 25 years old. His landing spot was crucial, and I loved the fit with the Los Angeles Chargers. He can line up opposite Khalil Mack, and the team can get creative with Mesidor, who can line up inside and rush the passer as well.

I’m more confident in Bailey and Bain having a greater impact in their first year with both teams, but Mesidor is an option I don’t hate.

Malachi Lawrence, +1300

Likelihood: 3/10

I loved the traits that Lawrence plays with. He’s a lengthy pass rusher who can push up the field with his athleticism. He still needs a ton of development in his game to be a true three-down edge at the NFL level and isn’t a complete pass-rusher yet.

With that in mind, I find it hard to believe Lawrence will win the award, but I still think he can be a solid pass rusher for the Dallas Cowboys in his career.

Dillon Thieneman, +2000

Likelihood: 2/10

It physically hurt me to type out the two for Thieneman, cause man, I loved him as a prospect. He and Coby Bryant will be a fun duo to watch, but I have to be real with myself. History, like Downs, shows us that safety barely wins this award. As much as I love Thieneman and the impact he can make in year one, I don’t think it’ll be enough to win the award.

Jacob Rodriguez, +2200

Likelihood: 8/10

The production Rodriguez found in his last year at Texas Tech is special. Now he enters a defense scheme under Jeff Hafley, where he can thrive by using his elite instincts to fly across the field. He wasn’t a physical backer who could come downhill and blow up blocks, but he doesn’t have to do that with the Miami Dolphins.

Jordyn Brooks is more of that downhill and physical backer, which should free up space for Rodriguez to make plays with his range. He’s also a former quarterback, and you can tell when he’s in pass coverage and knows how to jump routes consistently.