Sure, for many, Ty Simpson is the next-best quarterback after Fernando Mendoza in this year’s draft, but the difference between being a first-round pick and suffering a Shedeur Sanders-like draft-day collapse could come down to how teams view one specific flaw.

“Ty Simpson, probably a second-rounder,” Ian Rapoport said on the Fitz & Whit podcast, via YouTube. “My guess is probably a first-rounder because someone will jump up to take him.”

According to Rapoport, there’s a chance he could be drafted in the first round, given that several quarterback-needy teams will be looking to address their needs quickly. Among them are the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals. Beyond his draft potential, the NFL insider also drew a grim comparison to Shedeur Sanders when discussing Simpson.

“I would say the Jets would be a possibility, and the Cardinals would be a possibility,” Rapoport added. “But then, if it’s not them, you’re sort of like, ‘Where does he actually,’ and that was actually a kind of problem with Shedeur [Sanders] ’cause it’s like once you realize people didn’t think he was a starter, you’re not just going to take him anywhere close to high in the draft. Then it was like a free fall.”

The New York Jets are actively searching for a quarterback after Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor failed to provide consistent, high-level play, resulting in just three wins last season. With two first-round picks (No. 2 and No. 16), they could target a quarterback, potentially Simpson, to address the position. And if his NFL Combine performance is anything to go by, his case gets further solidified.

During his throwing session, he missed only one pass and showed strong accuracy. In what many consider a weaker quarterback class overall, his calm and smooth performance helped him stand out and gain more attention from teams.

As for the Cardinals, they have parted ways with former No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. The franchise even hosted the Alabama quarterback for a top-30 visit ahead of the draft. And with the franchise having the No. 3 overall selection in the first round, Simpson might just be a strong option.

Despite all the positives, Rapoport was careful enough to point out the negatives as well. He took the example of the Cleveland Browns quarterback, Shedeur Sanders, who was projected to be a top-3 pick in the 2025 draft behind Cam Ward. And although he had a 74% pass completion rate and recorded 4,134 passing yards and 37 touchdown passes, we saw how he was drafted in the fifth round.

Franchises were concerned about his high sack rate (94 sacks) and lack of elite arm strength. As Rapoport mentioned, these concerns led many to view him as a non-starter, which resulted in him going unselected on the first two days. Sanders initially served as a backup, but an injury to the starting quarterback helped him earn the starting role.

As for Simpson, he, too, lacks in a few categories. He has only played 15 games in his three-year college football career and has faltered in the most important ones. The exhibits of it, you may ask? Well, let’s see the Rose Bowl loss. The 23-year-old couldn’t move the Tide offense. He threw an interceptable pass on one of his 16 attempts before he suffered a cracked rib on a fumbled third-down scramble.

Then in the SEC Championship loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, he threw an interception into the public and had at least two more interceptable throws. His lone touchdown came on a screen-and-scamper at the end of a penalty-aided drive, cutting Georgia’s lead to 21–7 early in the fourth quarter. He was indecisive and jittery against the Bulldogs’ defense and ended up throwing behind receivers and scrambling when he shouldn’t have.

These stats could potentially rewrite Simpson’s draft potential. Moreover, if he doesn’t get drafted in the first round, he might have to wait a few more rounds to get a team.

Ian Rapoport paints a picture of how quarterback picks change after the first round

Quarterbacks are often prioritized in the draft, frequently coming off the board in the first round, as Ian Rapoport pointed out. Still, falling out of Day 1 doesn’t ensure a quick selection in the second round.

“The problem with quarterbacks is if they don’t go in the first round, they generally go in the fourth round,” he remarked on the Fitz & Whit podcast on Tuesday.

Teams in dire need of quarterbacks are often the ones that use first-round picks on them, while others wait until the later rounds. One of the main reasons is that quarterbacks are not always immediate starters and are often viewed as “projects” or developmental backups. Aaron Rodgers spent three seasons as a backup after being drafted before becoming a starter.

The NCAA and the NFL are different. Arm strength, physicality, and speed  — everything matters in the NFL. So, the rookie quarterbacks need to get a better view from the sidelines to learn more about the game. Spending a first-round pick on them could become costly if they don’t bloom properly. Kyler Murray was the overall No. 1 pick, but he has yet to reach his full potential after seven seasons.

With so much going on behind the scenes, Ty Simpson’s case is getting more interesting. He received a massive $6.5 million offer from the Miami Hurricanes in the NCAA, yet he chose to enter the draft. With the draft just a couple of days away, there are plenty of opinions circulating about the quarterback.

Which of these predictions will prove correct? Will it be the New York Jets or the Arizona Cardinals who draft Simpson? Or could he fall to the fourth round? It remains to be seen whether declining the offer was the right decision.