For many, Ty Simpson is the next-best quarterback after Fernando Mendoza in this year’s draft. But the difference between being a first-round pick and suffering a Shedeur Sanders-like draft-day collapse could come down to aspects that aren’t in Simpson’s control at all. At least, that’s what reporter Ian Rapoport believes, and he has a point.

“The problem with quarterbacks is if they don’t go in the first round, they generally go in like the fourth round,” Rapoport said on the Fitz & Whit podcast. “Ty Simpson, probably a second-rounder. My guess is probably a first-rounder because someone will jump up to take him.”

Here’s the thing: there is a chance he could be drafted in the first round, given that several quarterback-needy teams will be looking to address their needs quickly. Among them are the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals. But what happens if they don’t draft him? A downward slide like Sanders might ensue.

“I would say the Jets would be a possibility, and the Cardinals would be a possibility,” Rapoport added. “But then, if it’s not them, you’re sort of like, ‘Where does he actually go?’ and that was actually a kind of problem with Shedeur [Sanders] ’cause it’s like once you realize people didn’t think he was a starter, you’re not just going to take him anywhere close to high in the draft. Then it was like a free fall.”

Rapoport isn’t wrong. Since the 2026 draft class for quarterbacks isn’t impressive, teams might have an eye on the 2o27 NFL Draft to pick a reliable QB and use this draft to build the rest of the roster. And if this happens, Simpson could slide out of the top 50. Just like Sanders.

Shedeur Sanders was projected to be a top-3 pick in the 2025 draft behind Cam Ward. And although he had a 74% pass completion rate and recorded 4,134 passing yards and 37 touchdown passes, we saw how he was drafted in the fifth round. Franchises were concerned about his high sack rate (94 sacks) and lack of elite arm strength. These concerns led many to view him as a non-starter, which resulted in him going unselected on the first two days. Similarly, Simpson also lacks in a few categories.

He shows encouraging command at times, but he can linger just a bit too long while working through reads. That contrast shows up clearly: when kept clean, his throws come with sharp velocity and accuracy, but once the pocket gets messy, the ball placement becomes inconsistent and the sacks start to pile up. Under pressure, he also leans toward shorter throws, and his overall efficiency takes a noticeable hit. But the concerns don’t end there.

He started only 15 games in the four years he spent in Alabama. Sure, he completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,567 passing yards and recorded 28 touchdowns as he took Alabama to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals last year, but his limited starting experience might work against him. It could put the NFL front offices on edge.

And historical data doesn’t help his case either.

If at all Simpson hears his name called in the first round on April 23, he’d be entering rare territory. According to ESPN Research, he would become just the 10th quarterback since 2006 to be taken on Day 1 with 20 or fewer college starts, and only the fifth to have started as few as 15 games.

For the time being, however, what we know is that the New York Jets are actively searching for a quarterback after Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor failed to provide consistent, high-level play, resulting in just three wins last season. With two first-round picks (No. 2 and No. 16), they could target a quarterback, potentially Simpson, to address the position. And if his NFL Combine performance is anything to go by, his case gets further solidified.

During his throwing session, he missed only one pass and showed strong accuracy. In what many consider a weaker quarterback class overall, his calm and smooth performance helped him stand out and gain more attention from teams.

As for the Cardinals, they have parted ways with former No. 1 pick Kyler Murray. The franchise even hosted the Alabama quarterback for a top-30 visit ahead of the draft. And with the franchise having the No. 3 overall selection in the first round, Simpson might just be a strong option.

What else could lead to a potential downward spiral in the draft for Ty Simpson?

Teams in dire need of quarterbacks are often the ones that use first-round picks on them, while others wait until the later rounds. One of the main reasons is that quarterbacks are not always immediate starters and are often viewed as projects or developmental backups. Aaron Rodgers spent three seasons as a backup after being drafted before becoming a starter.

The NCAA and the NFL are different. Arm strength, physicality, and speed, everything matters at the professional level. So, the rookie quarterbacks need to get a better view from the sidelines to learn more about the game. Spending a first-round pick on them could become costly if they don’t bloom properly. Take Kyler Murray as an example. He was the overall No. 1 pick, but he has yet to reach his full potential after seven seasons.

With so much going on behind the scenes, Ty Simpson’s case is getting more interesting. He received a massive $6.5 million offer from the Miami Hurricanes in the NCAA, yet he chose to enter the draft. And with the draft just a couple of days away, there are plenty of opinions circulating about the quarterback. All we have to do is wait and watch.