Heading into Week 17, the MVP race felt totally locked in. But 16 matchups later, the one question many have asked is: Can you really predict anything this season? It was Matthew Stafford’s race to lose last week, and that’s exactly what he did. Meanwhile, Drake Maye made history like never before and flipped the table on the MVP conversations once again. 

We’re finally staring at Week 18 and the postseason beyond. And only two stars feel locked in right now. Beyond them, there’s a lot of chaos and hopes of January magic. Let’s dive into the Week 18 EssentiallySports MVP ladder to find out how the MVP race is shaping up close to the end zone. 

2. Matthew Stafford: Dethroned After Week 17 Nightmare

Monday Night Football extracted a heavy toll on Matthew Stafford’s MVP campaign. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback walked into Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium as the MVP frontrunner. One game and three interceptions (two pick-sixes) later, he left with his 2025 legacy tarnished and his odds in free fall. That second pick-six tied Brett Favre’s record of 32, a milestone nobody wants.

The Atlanta Falcons’ running back Bijan Robinson torched Los Angeles for 229 yards and two touchdowns. With Puka Nacua bottled up and the offensive line crumbling, Stafford forced throws that never had a chance. The 14-point deficit tied the largest the Rams faced all season, against an eliminated Falcons squad playing spoiler.

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“I obviously didn’t play well enough,” Stafford admitted post-game. “Nothing they did, to be honest. Same kind of stuff they’ve been doing all year, just we didn’t execute well enough.” Translation: he knows he blew it.

Here’s the thing: Stafford’s collapse wasn’t gradual. It was explosive. His +310 odds right now represent a stark nosedive in credibility since last week, when he was a clear winner. The veteran who dominated defenses for weeks suddenly looked mortal when hardware was on the line.

The playoff math could still help the Rams. They sit at 11-5 after the Monday Night loss, locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC. They’ve been eliminated from NFC West contention after the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers won in Week 17. Now, Los Angeles can only move up to the No. 5 seed if they beat the Arizona Cardinals and the Niners lose to Seattle.

Meanwhile, Rams head coach Sean McVay has hinted that he might rest some starters in Week 18. Stafford wants to play, but if he has to rest, that could be another big hit to his MVP standings. And if he does play, he needs to prove that Week 17 was nothing but a big blip.

1. Drake Maye: Unprecedented MVP Caliber Game

Drake Maye torched the New York Jets like a seasoned All-Pro, not a sophomore making his case. 19 of 21 completions, five touchdowns, and a 99.6 QBR metric. That’s the highest single-game mark in QBR history since 2006. Against New York, Maye became the first quarterback ever to post 90% completion percentage with 250+ yards and 5 TDs. Basically, he just made history.

No surprise, the New England Patriots steamrolled the Jets 42-10 without Maye needing a fourth quarter. He sat with 8:16 left in the third, after his fifth touchdown made it 42-3. The Jets defense, still searching for answers, could only let it all unfold. And if you needed more stats to make Maye’s MVP case, he finished leading all qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (71.7), yards per attempt (8.9), and a passer rating of 112.9. And still, Maye credits this all to his team.

“Just proud of these guys out here,” Maye said after his historic game. “We showed up, and we started fast, and we just didn’t stop from there.” That’s dynasty talk from a 23-year -old who just helped his team own the AFC East for the first time since 2019.

But their division title was also thanks to the Buffalo Bills falling to the Philadelphia Eagles after the Pats won their road game. Now, they’re locked in to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, tied with the Denver Broncos at 13-3, but trailing them on tiebreakers. Beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 18 and hope Denver loses to the Los Angeles Chargers, and that’s the No. 1 seed right there.

Drake Maye’s standing at -300 odds, the clear favorite once again, and higher than Stafford ever reached. At the rate Maye’s cooking, only a catastrophe could derail his season now.

On the Cusp: Allen, Lawrence, and Williams Chasing Miracles

The odds aren’t exactly pretty, but Trevor Lawrence stands nearest to Stafford and Maye with (+25000). ‘Nearest’ might be a bit too much given the gap between them, but that’s where Vegas stands right now. Lawrence put up decent numbers for the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. No passing TDs, but two rushing scores. But his path to the MVP title demands a massive postseason run that upstages everyone else. The Jags do hold the No. 3 seed in the AFC, but can he win against the monster defenses waiting for him in January?

Below Lawrence lies Josh Allen with +30000 odds. The Bills quarterback needed a statement game against the Eagles. Instead, Philly remains the only team he has never beaten in his career. In a 13-12 heartbreaker, Allen rushed for two late touchdowns but sailed his game-winning 2-point conversion attempt out of Khalil Shakir’s reach with five seconds left.

Allen took the blame like a pro. But that miss dropped Buffalo to the No. 7 seed and ended their five-year AFC East reign. For Allen to resurface in MVP talks? He’d need Maye to implore against Miami while posting 400 yards and five touchdowns himself. But his foot is still a pain point, and could get in his way against the Jets in Week 18.

Caleb Williams is the last man standing on this list with +30000 odds as we head to Week 18. The Chicago Bears quarterback has shown major flashes, but lacks the team success to drive MVP narratives into the postseason. The Bears’ 42-38 loss to San Fran exposed Chicago’s defensive failures despite Williams’ 330-yard, two-touchdown effort. The Bears sit at the NFC’s No. 2 seed as they go up against the Detroit Lions in Week 18. To make his case, he had a massive game against Detroit, a Patriots loss, and voter rebellion. If not, he’s got the postseason to make splashes.

Week 18 still holds a lot at stake. Drake Maye hosts Miami with the No. 1 seed mathematically in reach. Matthew Stafford faces Arizona knowing he needs to rekindle the MVP dream. Beyond them lies a treacherous ravine spanning the distance between the nearest competition. But one thing’s for certain. There’s still a whole lot of football left to be played.

This was the last MVP ladder for this calendar year, folks. Whatever happens in the regular season finale, we’ll see you on the other side with even more MVP swagger. Until then, here’s wishing you a Happy New Year from EssentiallySports.