The NFL is full of “what if” moments that could’ve changed the history of the league. What if Bo Nix didn’t break his ankle and got to play in the AFC Championship? What if Andrew Luck never retired early? What if the Seahawks handed the ball off to Marshawn Lynch?

Every year we could say what if this happened or what if that happened, but there is no bigger “what if” in football history than what if the Miami Dolphins cleared Drew Brees back in 2006? He’s gone on record as to saying he wanted to be a Dolphin, but when the doctors didn’t clear his shoulder, he was basically forced to sign with New Orleans.

You may think the outcome would be as simple as the Miami Dolphins would’ve been good and New Orleans Saints would still be irrelevant to this day. But it goes so much deeper than that.

How It All Played Out

Before we get into the hypotheticals, let’s take a look at how it all turned out.

Starting with Brees and the Saints, after five pretty mediocre seasons with the Chargers, Brees signed with the Saints, who had just brought in a young offensive coordinator named Sean Payton to be their head coach, in 2006. Coming off a 3-13 season, nobody expected the Saints to do much of anything in 2006, especially after Hurricane Katrina devastated the city not even a year ago, but the Saints went 10-6, made the playoffs for the first time in five years and advanced to the NFC Championship game for the first time in franchise history.

After their incredible bounce back, it only got better. Within four years, Payton and Brees led the Saints to their first ever Super Bowl title, taking down Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts to claim the Lombardi Trophy. They’d never quite reach the pinnacle again (although they should’ve in 2018), but they made the playoffs seven more times during their tenure and orchestrated the most successful stretch in franchise history.

As for Brees, he went on to retire as the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards, completion percentage, completions and plenty of other stats. He also threw for 5,000 yards five times in his career, which is a feat no other quarterback has ever done more that twice. He stamped his name all over the NFL record book and cemented himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

As for the Dolphins, they had one of the top up-and-coming coaches in Nick Saban and were coming off a fairly successful 9-7 season, but they knew they needed better quarterback play. Drew Brees was their top target, but when their doctors came back and said he only had a 25 percent chance of ever playing football again after his major shoulder injury, they let him sign with New Orleans.

While Brees and the Saints made the NFC Championship game the following season, the Dolphins won just six games, and after the year ended, Saban decided to step down and take the job with the Alabama Crimson Tide. After Saban’s departure, the Dolphins would win 10+ games just one time over the next nine seasons, and would only make two playoff appearances – both of which resulted in first round losses – during the rest of Brees’s career.

Saban made the right decision leaving Miami. After signing with the Crimson Tide, Saban led Alabama to six National Championships in 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017 and 2020. He coached in Tuscaloosa for 17 years, with more than a third of his seasons ending in a national title. He’s commonly referred to as the greatest college coach of all time.

If Brees signed with Miami, who knows what would’ve happened? But that’s what we’re about to try and find out.

What Would’ve Happened to the Saints?

The biggest ripple effect of this whole thing is what would’ve happened to the New Orleans Saints without Drew Brees?

In the 10 years leading up to 2006, the Saints had won 10+ games one time in 2000, when they went 10-6 and lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Other than that, they had five seasons with seven or fewer wins and were coming off a 3-13 year before Brees arrived.

On top of that, the city of New Orleans was just ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. The Saints didn’t play a single home game in the 2005 season and almost moved to San Antonio.

Drew Brees shared a story about his visit to New Orleans, saying Sean Payton was trying to show him the nice parts of town, but took a wrong turn and ended up taking them down streets that were completely leveled by the storm. Obviously, as a 27-year-old man who wanted to start a family with his wife, the visit left him with a lot of concerns about what living in New Orleans would be like.

Needless to say, there wasn’t much hope for the New Orleans Saints entering the 2006 season, and if Brees hadn’t come and connected with Sean Payton, who knows what the team would look like today?

I doubt they would’ve gone on to win a Super Bowl just four years later. Their roster was good, but it was their elite offense that paved the way for them to win the Super Bowl. Without Brees, sure, Payton could’ve had a solid offense, but it wouldn’t have been anywhere near as good as it was with Brees under center.

And who’s to say Payton even makes it four years? Even with Brees, the Saints made the playoffs just one time in his first three seasons. Without him, there’s a chance they go 6-10 or worse in 2006-2008 and Payton doesn’t even make it to 2009.

I think it’s safe to say that if Brees didn’t sign with New Orleans, there’s a really good chance they’re still ringless right now and are one of the most irrelevant teams in the league.

What Would’ve Happened to the Dolphins?

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What would’ve happened to the Miami Dolphins if Brees had signed with them? That’s a hard question to answer because there are so many variables, but let’s try to figure it out.

Part of the reason Brees was so great was because of Sean Payton. They understood each other unlike any other coach/quarterback duo in NFL history. Without Payton, Brees isn’t a top-five quarterback of all-time. And without Brees, Payton probably isn’t a Super Bowl champion coach.

However, that doesn’t mean Brees wouldn’t have saved Miami from the two decades of torture that’s followed. In 2006, the Dolphins had a top-five scoring defense, but won six games because their quarterbacks had a combined 16 passing touchdowns to 19 interceptions.

Brees was an above-average quarterback in 2004 and 2005, and we all know he healed from his shoulder injury pretty well. If he was even average in 2006, the Dolphins likely win something like 11 games and make the playoffs, which probably means Nick Saban sticks around for at least a couple of more years.

I don’t know if Brees ever reaches the level he hit in New Orleans and leads Miami to a Super Bowl, but one thing is for certain: if Brees signed with Miami, they would’ve made more than two playoff appearances from 2006 to 2020.

What Would’ve Happened to Alabama?

If Brees signed with Miami and they went to the playoffs in 2006, leading Nick Saban to sticking around in South Beach for at least another year or two, what would’ve happened to Alabama?

Let’s rewind a little bit. During the 1960s and 1970s, Alabama was widely considered one of the best teams in college football under legendary Head Coach Bear Bryant. But after Bryant’s retirement in 1982, the Tide fell on hard times. At least to their standards.

They had some successful seasons between 1982 and 2007, namely their 1992 National Championship season where they went 13-0, but it wasn’t until Saban arrived in 2007 that they were able to have sustained success. But what if Saban never arrived?

During their coaching search after the 2006 season, Alabama actually targeted West Virginia Head Coach Rich Rodriguez first. He turned down the job, leading Alabama to hire Saban, but if Saban wasn’t available, who would they have landed?

Reports indicate that Alabama had interest in a bunch of different candidates, including Steve Spurrier, who was coming off an eight-win season with South Carolina. Would he have been able to find the same success in Tuscaloosa as Nick Saban? I doubt it. I don’t even know if he would’ve been able to win a single national title there.

And if Bama isn’t the cream of the crop during the late 2000s/early 2010s, does that mean, Texas, LSU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State – the teams Saban beat in the National Championship at Alabama – all pick up extra National Championships? Probably, and if not them, then someone else certainly does.

Without Brees signing with the Saints, I’d say there’s a 99.99999 percent chance Alabama doesn’t win six titles in a 17-year span. In fact, I’d say there’s at least a 50 percent chance they don’t win a single title during that span. They’d won double-digit games just once in the five years leading up to Saban’s hire, so it’s not like they were already an elite program waiting for someone else to take the crown. They needed a rebuilder, and that’s what they got in Saban.

Other Ripple Effects

While the Saints, Dolphins and Alabama were the teams most affected by the Drew Brees signing, they weren’t the only ones.

The most immediate impact was Dante Culpepper. The former Minnesota Viking was fantastic in 2004, but suffered a major knee injury in 2005. Ironically, after doctors didn’t clear Brees’s shoulder, they cleared Culpepper’s knee, which enabled the Dolphins to trade for the three-time Pro Bowler. While Brees went on to play another 15 seasons, Culpepper played four games for the Dolphins before he bounced around the league for the next three years, never playing more than eight games in a single season.

Before we talk about this next one, it’s a big far-fetched, but it definitely still relates. In 2020, when Tom Brady hit free agency and was openly looking to move on from the New England Patriots, Sean Payton and the Saints had massive interest in signing the six-time Super Bowl champion, but only if Brees retired. Brees ended up returning to football in 2020, which would be his final season, leading to Brady signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If Brees wasn’t with the Saints, maybe Sean Payton finds success and is still the head coach in New Orleans, leading Brady to sign with the Saints to play with one of the best play callers of his generation. Again, it’s a stretch, because Payton very well could’ve been gone without Brees, but you never know.

Drew Brees signing with the Saints caused one of the worst franchises in NFL history to win their first Super Bowl, caused the Dolphins to suffer the longest current playoff win drought in the NFL (25 seasons) and caused Alabama to become a dynasty under Nick Saban. Safe to say this decision was one of the biggest, if not the biggest, in NFL history.