Since 2002, when the NFL realigned to its current eight-division format, at least one team has gone from last place in their division to first place in one offseason in 17 different seasons. That’s a near-75-percent hit rate, which means there’s a very good chance we see it happen again this year.

The Giants, Saints, Lions, Cardinals, Jets, Raiders, Browns and Titans all have the chance to be the next team to go from worst to first in just one offseason. But what are the odds they actually get it done? I went through all eight teams and gave my thoughts on how likely it is for each of them to win their division this year.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints may be the most improved team in the league this season. They won six games in year one under Kellen Moore, but got red hot at the end of last season when Tyler Shough stepped in and had a terrific offseason, adding guys like Travis Etienne, Jordyn Tyson, David Edwards, Kaden Elliss and plenty of others.

Offensively, this team should be capable of averaging 25+ points per game. They have their quarterback, two stud receivers, two above average running backs and a great offensive line when healthy. I’ve heard a lot of people predicting them to have one of the worst defenses in the league, but they lost a middle linebacker and slot corner from last year’s unit that ranked top-10 in scoring. To me, that doesn’t signal that significant of a fall off.

The NFC South is also wide open for New Orleans. The Carolina Panthers are the most talented team in the division, but their strength of schedule ranks 13th compared to New Orleans’ 30th. I think it’ll be a two-horse race between Carolina and New Orleans, and I think there’s a good chance the Saints win the south this year.

Odds: 40 percent

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions also have a fantastic chance to go from worst to first in 2026. Last season was a disappointing one for Dan Campbell’s team, but they suffered a ton of injuries on defense, which caused a late-season collapse.

We all know how dangerous this offense can be. Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta for one of the best offensive cores in the entire league, so if they miss the playoffs again this year, it’s going to be because of their defense. But when you look at how they played when healthy last year (21.6 PPG allowed before their bye, 26.2 after their bye), defense shouldn’t be an issue if they can avoid the injury bug.

The only reason Detroit is lower than New Orleans is because of their divison. The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers will both be in the running, but Detroit’s strength of schedule (31st) is much easier than Green Bay’s (14th) or Chicago’s (10th). It’ll be a three-horse race, but I think Detroit should be considered the second-favorite to win the NFC North behind Chicago.

Odds: 35 percent

New York Giants

If the Saints or Lions don’t win their division, I don’t think there are many other teams that can go from worst to first this season, but the New York Giants probably have the next-best odds.

The Giants are a much better team than their 4-13 record indicated. They played a lot of tight games against some really good teams, but always seemed to come out on the losing end. Now, with John Harbaugh taking over as head coach, expectations for the Giants are much higher than they were last year, so it definitely feels like a 10+ win season isn’t out of the question.

However, the NFC East isn’t going to be an easy battle. The Philadelphia Eagles still have an extremely talented roster and the Dallas Cowboys have improved their defense 10 fold. There’s a world where New York takes the crown, but it seems much more unlikely than New Orleans or Detroit winning their respective divisions.

Odds: 10 percent

Tennessee Titans

I really like some of the moves the Tennessee Titans made this offseason. First, they brought in Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll on the coaching front. Then they focused on defense in free agency, signing guys like John Franklin-Meyers, Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott, while also giving their young quarterback a weapon in Wan’Dale Robinson. And then in the draft, they got Cam Ward some more weapons in Carnell Tate and Nick Singleton while also adding to their defense with Keldric Faulk and Anthony Hill Jr.

This was a terrific first offseason for Robert Saleh and Co., and the Titans should be pretty competitive this year, but I just don’t think it’s enough to be division champions when it’s all said and done.

The AFC South is no pushover. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts are both going to be threats, and it doesn’t help that the Houston Texans, who I believe will finish with the best record in the AFC this year, are also in the division. The Titans aren’t clearly better than any of those teams, so I think they’re still a couple of years away from competing for the division.

Odds: 8 percent

Las Vegas Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are another team that had a very strong offseason, but I’m not quite sure they’re ready to compete with the big dogs yet.

The Raiders opened the offseason by bringing in Super Bowl winning Offensive Coordinator, Klint Kubiak, to be their next head coach. Then, somewhat shockingly, they didn’t really make many offensive additions in free agency, outside of signing Tyler Linderbaum to a massive contract. Instead, they spent big on defense, bringing in guys like Kwity Paye, Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean.

Then, in the draft, they did the best thing any team could do, finding their franchise quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. They still focused pretty heavily on the defensive side of the ball, but they got better up front and out wide in the later rounds.

As much as this team has improved, they’re not going to be contenders in the AFC West. Kansas City, Los Angeles and Denver are all real playoff threats, so there’s a real chance they go 1-5 or even 0-6 in the division this year.

Like the Titans, the Raiders are probably two years away from being competitive in the AFC West.

Odds: 5 percent

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns also got a lot better this offseason, but there are still a ton of question marks surrounding this team entering 2026.

The Browns did a lot of good this offseason. They completely revamped their offensive line, added two very talented wide receivers early in the draft and got some value later on, but they did trade away Myles Garrett, which will certainly hurt their team (at least in 2026). On top of that, their quarterback situation is as murky as any team’s. Deshaun Watson is coming off two Achilles injuries, while Shedeur Sanders showed next to nothing outside of one game last season.

The Browns are clearly worse than all three of their AFC North foes, so I don’t see a world where they end up winning this division in 2026.

Odds: 2 percent

Arizona Cardinals

I liked the move to bring in Mike LaFleur as head coach, but outside of that, I don’t think the Arizona Cardinals had a great offseason.

They signed some solid players such as Isaac Seumalo, Tyler Allgeier and Kendrick Bourne in free agency, but considering the cap space they had, it was a pretty underwhelming haul. And as much as I love Jeremiyah Love, he was not the right pick at No. 3. And neither was Carson Beck at No. 65.

It feels like this team had a lot of chances to get better this offseason, and they didn’t really do it. They’re going to be just about as good as they were last year, and in the NFC West, AKA the toughest division in the NFL, that isn’t going to cut it.

Odds: 1 percent

New York Jets

The New York Jets had a much better offseason than the Cardinals, but I still put them with Arizona at the 1 percent mark because of a lot of factors.

But let’s start with the good. The Jets added some difference makers early, namely Demario Davis and Minkah Fitzpatrick, before bringing in quite the draft haul with guys like David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. But still, I don’t think that will be enough to win the AFC East.

First, I don’t believe in Aaron Glenn as a coach. I can’t believe I’m saying that, because I wanted him to come to New Orleans to coach my Saints, but he was so unlikable this year. Maybe the players like him, but every time he talked to the media, I just liked him less and less.

Second, the AFC East is a beast. The Super Bowl runner ups, the New England Patriots, will look to reclaim their title, but Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills won’t go down without a fight. Miami isn’t much of a worry, but there’s no way the Jets beat out the Pats and Bills. I’m sorry, there just isn’t.

Odds: 1 percent