For the better part of a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs have reigned supreme over the AFC West. Ever since Patrick Mahomes became their franchise quarterback, they have gone mostly unchallenged in their division. But that streak ended in the 2025 regular season with the Denver Broncos putting a stop to their dominance. And now, Mahomes has one more reason to worry: Fernando Mendoza coming to the Las Vegas Raiders to become Mahomes’ newest nightmare.

The Raiders hold the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, and Mendoza is the consensus top prospect. The math is simple: Las Vegas desperately needs a franchise quarterback after Geno Smith’s disastrous season: 17 picks, a league-low 201.7 passing yards per game, and the most sacks taken in the NFL (55). The marriage between the Raiders and Mendoza feels almost inevitable.

What makes this terrifying for Kansas? Geography. Twice a year, Mahomes would face a quarterback who possesses similar physical gifts but wrapped in a 6’5”, 225-pound frame (three inches taller than the Chiefs’ superstar). Mendoza’s arm strength can access every level of the field, and his pocket presence allows him to navigate pressure with immense composure.

The 2025 Heisman winner didn’t just pad his stats against lesser opponents; he saved his best for the brightest lights. After leading Indiana (13-0) to its first Big Ten title since 1945, he put on a clinic in the College Football Playoff. First, he dismantled Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, throwing for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Then, in the Peach Bowl semifinal, he carved up Oregon’s defense for five touchdown passes, completing 17 of 20 attempts for 177 yards.

Mendoza’s dual-threat capability adds another significant threat. He rushed 28 yards on six attempts against Oregon and also posted a passer rating of 241.8. His ability to extend plays with his legs and deliver accurate passes is exactly what will keep NFL defensive coordinators on the edge. The Chiefs would face this problem twice annually if Mendoza ends up in Las Vegas, potentially ending any hopes of a comeback after their disastrous 2025 season.

Historically, the Chiefs have feasted on weak division opponents for years. But that ends now. And there’s something bigger brewing in Las Vegas beyond just adding elite quarterback talent. The Raiders aren’t just drafting a player; they’re potentially building a dynasty from scratch.

Dynasty dreams in Sin City

Beyond Fernando Mendoza’s individual talent, the Raiders possess something rare: a blank canvas. Pete Carroll’s firing opens the door for a fresh coaching hire to pair with Mendoza. One of the prime candidates for the job is Brian Flores, the defensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings, who is known for his aggressive play-style.

Pair Flores with someone like Brian Daboll (the former head coach of the New York Giants, who once helped shape Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber), and that’s the exact formula that has launched dynasties before.

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History offers a compelling precedent as well. The 2008 Atlanta Falcons paired rookie quarterback Matt Ryan with first-year head coach Mike Smith. That combination immediately posted an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance after a 4-12 disaster the previous season. That same year, the Baltimore Ravens united Joe Flacco with rookie head coach John Harbaugh, reaching the AFC Championship Game in one year before capturing a Super Bowl four seasons later.

The Raiders also have building blocks. Brock Bowers emerged as one of the NFL’s elite tight ends last season and followed it up with decent numbers this season despite the team’s struggles. Running back Ashton Jeanty has shown major flashes this season after arriving as a premium draft pick. Add Mendoza’s precision passing and an innovative offensive mind, and Las Vegas accelerates from laughingstock to contender faster than anyone expects.

The AFC West arms race would intensify overnight. The Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers have both made it to the playoffs, while the Chiefs got knocked out of contention as early as Week 15 this season. Now, a Raiders team built around Fernando Mendoza would force the Chiefs to fight harder for every divisional matchup.

The 2025 season may have just been a minor setback for the Chiefs. Their reign isn’t guaranteed to end, but the margin for error has just become razor-thin. Two games a year against a quarterback who threw 36 touchdowns against just six picks (Mendoza) in 2025 changes everything. The dynasty might finally have a legitimate challenger wearing silver and black.