Malik Willis just went from career reclamation project to one of the NFL’s most surprising new franchise quarterbacks. From a third-round slide to a quiet resurgence as a backup, Malik Willis’s career has been anything but predictable. And now, the Miami Dolphins are betting a starter’s contract that he can finally deliver on his first-round promise. But is he walking into a perfect storm for success or another situation destined for failure?

Despite plenty of interest, it was a shocker when Willis’ new contract was announced. He received a three-year, $67.5 million deal with the Miami Dolphins, with $22.5 million annually.

The Dolphins are a great fit. They released Tua Tagovailoa and are looking for their next quarterback. To be able to afford Willis after owing Tagovailoa $54 million in 2026, they set their new quarterback’s 2026 cap hit at just below $9 million.

Willis has never been granted the chance to be a starter in the NFL. He was projected to be as high as a top-5 pick coming into the 2022 NFL draft, but fell to the third round. While with the Tennessee Titans, Willis only started three games. A year later, they drafted Will Levis to replace him.

Once he joined the Green Bay Packers, Willis was able to focus on his development. This was the turnaround for the young quarterback. In his two seasons with Green Bay, Willis led the Packers to a 2-1 record, throwing for 972 yards and 6 touchdowns. He also added 261 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

Why is this a good fit?

Willis is joining a weak Dolphins team that doesn’t have any expectations. They’re in the midst of a rebuild year and aren’t going to be competitive in the elite AFC East.

But Miami does have its playmakers. De’Von Achane has developed into one of the league’s best running backs, and Jaylen Waddle has three 1,000-yard seasons. Despite their weapons, Miami had the seventh-worst offense in the NFL last season.

Just like the Dolphins, there aren’t a lot of expectations on Willis. While he did sign a pretty steep deal, he’s joining a bad team. This may appear to be a hindrance, but in reality, it gives Willis the chance to focus on developing and getting better.

In Miami, Willis will be the starter heading into Week 1, with the team being built around him. Willis will more than double his six career starts and get plenty more in-game experience. The Dolphins will also likely be more lenient with Willis, as his former defensive coordinator in Green Bay, Jeff Hafley, is his new head coach. Hafley liked what he saw when Willis was a Packer and is giving him a chance to revive his career.

How will he turn around?

Willis’ story could develop into one similar to Sam Darnold‘s. While there are clear differences, with Darnold being a top-3 draft pick, he was also forced into a bad situation to start his career before finding backup roles and earning another chance to start.

When Darnold joined the Minnesota Vikings, they were in a much better place than where the Dolphins are now, but it’s clear that after Darnold left, he played a bigger role in their 14-3 record than first anticipated.

This is the path Willis will have to take if he wants to solidify his career as a starter. The question isn’t whether he will play at a star level, but whether he will be able to elevate the team around him.

The 6-foot-2 quarterback has improved his accuracy every season in the NFL, completing an impressive 85.7% of his passes in 2025. He wasn’t limited to short passes either, and averaged 12.1 yards per attempt.

Joining a Dolphins offense that has its talent will work in Willis’ favor, but there are concerns about their offensive line. Miami’s offensive line was one of the worst units in 2025. Willis has displayed his ability to navigate the pocket; it’s hard for any passer to find success with an inconsistent offensive line.

Predicting Willis’ stats in 2026

2026 will be a crucial year in Willis’ career. He won’t need to play at a star level immediately, but he will have to prove his potential.

While there aren’t many expectations for the 26-year-old quarterback, I think he’ll find a home in Miami and see success in year one.

• Predictions: 2,900 passing yards, 62% completion%, 20 passing TDs, 14 INTs, 900 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs

This isn’t the most intense stat line, but it’s more than enough to prove Willis’ capabilities to be a starter. In his first year in the offense, he’ll face growing pains and inefficiencies. I expect Willis to be much better in year two with the Dolphins, but 2026 will be just enough to keep him the starter.