The hype surrounding Fernando Mendoza as the next franchise quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders has seemingly started to derail. The organization acquired Mendoza as the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, believing that they finally found a face for the team’s offense. The Raiders even brought Kirk Cousins to mentor and develop him. But now, preseason games and practice sessions have pushed some analysts to believe that the Raiders won’t look at extending Mendoza’s four-year, $57,270,598 rookie deal. 

“Fernando Mendoza will not see a second contract with the Raiders,” First Round Mock’s Daniel Kelly wrote on X

In the video clip that Kelly attached to the X post, Mendoza was struggling against the 49ers defenders. In the second quarter of the preseason game with 12:36 on the clock, Mendoza felt the pressure from Keion White. And it didn’t take long for Keion to score a sack and take the rookie quarterback down. 

“Fernando Mendoza was a 4th round pre draft value on his Indiana game as an NFL value and he was selected way before that,” Kelly responded to an X user wondering why Mendoza won’t get another contract with the Raiders. “Now, because of that, his career is framed with expectations that he never showed on his college film that he can meet. His failure with the Raiders is as inevitable as tomorrow morning’s sunrise.”

During his collegiate tenure in California and Indiana, Mendoza played 36 games and recorded 691 completions for 8,247 yards. He also recorded 71 passing touchdowns and rushed for 467 yards and 11 touchdowns. However, Kelly evaluated every snap that the rookie played in the past couple of seasons and stayed adamant in his belief about the quarterback’s future contract. 

Kelly pointed out that Mendoza is “inexperienced at throwing a full route tree.” He argued that Mendoza was more comfortable throwing outside than inside. On top of that, according to The Ringer, Mendoza had a pressure-to-sack rate of 18.9% in the last season. That put him in 36th place out of 57 draft-eligible quarterbacks. And his career pressure-to-sack rate remains 27.1%. 

“Can’t feel backside or frontside pressure that he can’t see coming,” Kelly wrote on his blog space. “Can get overwhelmed by pressure up the middle.”

Kelly further claimed that Mendoza was the “most inflexible quarterback” that he’s ever evaluated. And he’s been making this case since December, 2025.

“If the first or second read isn’t there fairly quickly, he’s on the move, or sometimes he just throws the ball away (18 sacks). This is how I believe he covers for his lack of feel for frontside and backside pressure,” Kelly wrote for the FirstRoundMock in an article titled: Fernando Mendoza Will Fail With the Team That Selects him if he goes in the First Round.

The analyst even claimed that Mendoza lacks the ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes. He claimed that the quarterback will throw right where he’s looking. He also tends to lock onto his intended target for a noticeable extra moment before throwing. And that can give defenders a pretty good idea of where he wants to go with the ball. He tends to take some extra time to throw and pats the ball before throwing. These tells could give the defense an edge.

Of course, it’s still a bit early to define Mendoza’s performance in the NFL. But we can put some of the blame on the pressure he must be under as a number one overall pick. With former scouts already heavily scrutinizing his mechanics and processing speed, Mendoza needs to accelerate his development.