When it comes to dramatic comebacks, no one does it better than the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. But as he faces the final stretch of the regular season, his team finds itself outside looking in on the playoff picture. There’s still time to turn it around, but former Chiefs offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz doesn’t believe in that slim chance. 

“I mean, can they?” wondered Schwartz in a recent interview. “Prediction at this point would be ‘no,’ just from what we’ve seen this year. It’s just not a team that’s gonna win five games in a row against three or four quality opponents.” 

Throughout his career, Mitchell Schwartz had created a reputation for reliability and iron-manning his way through games. So when an All-Pro like him says he doesn’t see Kansas City’s playoff chances, it carries the weight of someone who knows what championship resilience looks like—and what its absence looks like. But even beyond Schwartz’s verdict, the numbers paint a grim picture. 

After their Thanksgiving loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13, KC now sits at 6-6 with a 37% playoff probability. Win out the remaining five, and they can still play January football. But the thing is, nothing in this season suggests they can rip off five straight wins.

The Chiefs sit 10th in the AFC at the moment, and are stuck two games behind three of the 8-4 teams in the wildcard spots (Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and Indianapolis Colts). All six of their losses came within one score. The margins have become razor-thin now, but the Chiefs have been going the wrong way all season. Through 12 games, Kansas City has committed 86 penalties for 753 yards. And then there are the slip-ups.

Take star tight end Travis Kelce’s fourth-quarter drop against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2, for instance. That ball turned into an interception and became the play that sealed their 20-17 loss. That’s been the whole season in one play. 

The talent is still there, though. Mahomes still ranks second in QBR (73.2) and 4th in passing yards (3,238). But the discipline that built head coach Andy Reid’s dynasty has vanished along with the execution. They’re not scoring enough when it matters, and the mistakes just keep compounding. Can they really turn it around? 

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce on their playoff odds

The two cornerstones of Kansas City’s offense aren’t hiding from reality. They see exactly what Mitchell Schwartz sees, maybe clearer. Travis Kelce addressed it head-on during his New Heights podcast.

“It’s tough to be a part of this reality right now cause we’re six and six and we’re fighting for our lives [to] find a way into the playoffs,” Kelce admitted. “What’s real is that we still have a chance, and that’s all that f****** matters to me… I’m going to keep coming in to work with that mentality and the sense of urgency that we need to have to get this s*** fixed.”

Kelce also noted that the penalties have been a momentum-killer, and the offense hasn’t been scoring as much as it once did. The self-awareness is there, and so is the frustration. And Patrick Mahomes is feeling the heat even more. Build a lead, and watch it all slip away in the fourth quarter; that’s been the story all season. And Mahomes has had enough of that.

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“We’ve got to put it all together for four quarters in this league,” he noted. “That’s something we’ve been great at in the past–but it’s not the past.”

Mahomes has also stated they need to win out all five to stay in the playoff hunt. There’s no more room for penalties, dropped passes, or fourth-quarter collapses. Five games against AFC opponents loom ahead. Five straight wins are required, with zero guarantee it’s even enough if they pull it off.

Andy Reid’s trying to keep everyone positive, blocking out the noise that’ll only get louder each week. But Mitchell Schwartz, the man who never quit on a single play if he could help it, has already seen enough. With what they’ve shown, are the current Chiefs built for this kind of run right now?