The consensus in draft circles has clearly picked Fernando Mendoza as the first overall pick to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Heisman Trophy winner sits at the top of nearly every list in what is widely considered a weak quarterback class. But ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky disagrees.​

“Ty Simpson is QB1,” Orlovsky said on ESPN’s Get Up. “Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in this class.”​

In this draft class, only two quarterbacks have generated consistent first-round discussion. Mendoza is the projected top pick and a near-certain first-round selection, while Ty Simpson is expected to come off the board somewhere in the mid-to-late first round. But in that debate, Orlovsky argues Simpson is better than Mendoza in several key areas. He also insists the gap between the two is “not close.”

“When you look at the body of work and what was asked of these two quarterbacks, you have to start with the question, who needed to do more to carry their football team to play well? Ty Simpson, and it’s not close between those two quarterbacks,” Orlovsky highlighted.

Simpson appeared in 16 games with the Alabama Crimson Tide from 2022 to 2024 before taking over as the full-time starter last season. That limited experience has led many to question his readiness for the NFL. Orlovsky, however, is not one of them. He points to how Simpson inherited a 9-4 Alabama team and led the Crimson Tide to an 11-4 record and a playoff appearance before falling 38-3 to Mendoza in the Rose Bowl.

Meanwhile, Mendoza spent two seasons at California, starting 20 games before transferring to Indiana for his final year. Orlovsky acknowledges that Mendoza dominated opponents throughout the season. But he still believes Simpson’s task was heavier because he had to step in and drive a program back into winning form rather than simply maintain momentum with a roster already built around him.

“Who took more games over throughout the course of the season? Ty Simpson. It’s not even close,” Orlovsky added.

​Simpson led the conference with 473 pass attempts and 305 completions, throwing for 3,567 yards with 28 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Mendoza posted 273 completions on 379 attempts for 3,535 yards and led the conference in touchdowns with 41. Given that Simpson was asked to throw the ball significantly more, Orlovsky draws a sharp conclusion about who was doing the heavier pro-style lifting.

“What guy was asked to do more NFL throws? When I say NFL throws, I’m talking 15, 20, 25-yard in routes, crossing routes, deep corner or sail routes. Ty Simpson, and it’s not even close in that regard,” he added.

​Mendoza’s accuracy percentage sits at 69.0 percent, second among all draft-eligible quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus. But Orlovsky argues that a large share of those completions come on RPOs and back-shoulder throws.

And that requires far less arm talent and complexity than the intermediate and downfield passes Simpson was regularly executing. That distinction makes Simpson the more valuable quarterback prospect at the pro level, and the one Orlovsky would rather select over Mendoza.

Dan Orlovsky’s draft verdict: Ty Simpson over Fernando Mendoza

There was another category where Orlovsky gave Simpson the edge in what he called a not-close contest: pocket presence under pressure.

​“So when it comes to moments of panic and big throws, real NFL throws, I think it’s clearly Ty Simpson,” Orlovsky continued on Get Up.

​Here, the PFF data does not support Orlovsky’s take. Mendoza holds an under-pressure grade of 70.3, ranked third among all draft-eligible quarterbacks. Simpson’s under-pressure grade is 47.6, placing him 29th. Even in a clean pocket, Mendoza holds a slight edge with a grade of 92.5, tied for third, compared to Simpson’s 91.3 at seventh. Still, Orlovsky’s preference remained firm.

“I would much rather have Ty, and I like Fernando Mendoza; this is not to slight Mendoza. I would rather have Ty Simpson at the 15 to 20 range than Fernando Mendoza at 1,” he said.

The Jets appear to be the most likely landing spot for Simpson when the draft arrives. The Raiders recently traded Geno Smith to the Jets. However, the franchise still needs a young, developmental signal caller to build around for the future, and are projected to select Simpson with their 16th overall pick.