Some predictions come in gently, while others hit you like a wake-up call. This week, two of football’s most recognizable voices shared a stark message about Kansas City’s future: They don’t count on seeing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. What’s surprising isn’t the doubt itself, but who it came from.

Julian Edelman set the tone on FOX Sports. ” I think there’s gonna be a new winner and I think there’s probably a group of six teams that could probably go out and win it right now. A completely new team,” Edelman said.

Michael Strahan took it even further. When asked if Patrick Mahomes could miss the playoffs for the first time, Strahan didn’t hold back and replied, “Yes.”

Edelman brushed aside any thoughts of Kansas City making a comeback, placing them alongside the Eagles as teams that probably won’t make it through the postseason. He pointed out that a few other contenders are now driving their way to the championship, adding that the NFL’s unpredictability only adds to that belief. “A new name team,” Edelman said. “Something.”

Strahan’s response echoed Edelman’s larger point: Kansas City is no longer in the league’s safe zone. Their margin for error has vanished.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ current situation backs up both viewpoints. Their Thanksgiving loss brought them down to 6-6. ESPN Analytics now gives them just a 47% chance of making the playoffs, a sharp drop from the 63% they had just days ago. With five AFC rivals ahead, the path is narrow. Mahomes himself admitted they probably need to win every game from here on out. No mistakes. No breaks.

Yet even Mahomes recognizes that their performance has been shaky. The Chiefs started 0-2, then fought back to 5-3, only to stumble again, losing three of their last four games. Consistency is the missing ingredient, and time is running out.

Furthermore, league discipline and fines have added to the pressure, highlighting the challenges faced by Kansas City.

Chiefs’ season tightens as NFL rulings follow dramatic Colts win

The Kansas City Chiefs thought they had found a spark. Trailing 20-9 in the fourth quarter against Indianapolis, they rallied behind Patrick Mahomes and pulled off a thrilling 23-20 victory that momentarily reignited their hopes for the AFC playoffs. While this comeback didn’t solve all their problems, it certainly kept their season alive.

Mahomes framed the moment as a test. “This is exactly what we needed,” he said. He pointed to resilience, noting the team “could’ve folded” but didn’t.

However, the game delivered its own fallout. Colts pass rusher Laiatu Latu opened strong with an interception, but later drew a roughing-the-passer flag on Mahomes before halftime. The league has issued 15 such fines this season, totaling more than $225,000. Yet after review, the NFL chose not to fine Latu. Supplemental discipline remained, as always, at the league’s discretion.

But Kansas City didn’t avoid consequences. Days after the game, the NFL finalized its discipline for Week 12. Among them, Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie was fined $11,593 for unnecessary roughness related to a facemask penalty. Tackle Kingsley Suamataia was also fined $8,108 for a blindside block in the fourth quarter.

These rulings landed just as Kansas City suffered a Thanksgiving loss to Dallas, dropping them to 6-6 and dragging them back into postseason uncertainty. What started as a season of chasing another Super Bowl has now turned into a fight for survival, with almost every remaining game carrying playoff implications.

For the Chiefs, the comeback mattered. The consequences mattered too. Together, they define exactly where their season stands.