Continuing his bid to claim his first-ever ATP Nitto Finals, Rafael Nadal will square off against rival Dominic Thiem at the group stage. Nadal won his opening match against Andrey Rublev in straight sets and won a whopping 82% of the points on his first serve. After the Spaniard’s semifinal exit from Rolex Paris Masters, he has improved his returns considerably.

Thiem, on the other hand, had to dig deep to overcome the defending champion, Stefanos Tsitsipas, to prevail in a tough three-set battle. Despite trailing 4-1 in the first-set tie-break, Thiem fought back to win the opening set. With the victory, Thiem avenged last year’s defeat at the hands of Tsitsipas in the finals of the season-ending championships.

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem head-to-head

The duo has played against each other 14 times, with Nadal having a 9-5 edge in the rivalry. However, Thiem won their last encounter at the semifinals of the 2020 Australian Open in an emphatic fashion. Notably, it will be the first time both heavyweights will lock horns in an indoor tournament.

Nadal vs Thiem prediction

Despite not having an impressive record at indoor tournaments, Nadal has adjusted to the conditions well. The Roland Garros champion has been playing closer to the baseline to dictate the points with his big forehand. Nadal’s first serves consistently clocked over 120mph during his match against Rublev, which will pose an enormous threat to Thiem.

On the other side, Thiem will have to be proactive in his returns to reduce the effectiveness of Nadal’s serve. The US Open champion’s backhand is his greatest weapon, and he will aim to offset Nadal’s court position. However, Thiem doesn’t seem to be in his prime form, considering the Austrian just returned from an injury.

Nadal’s aggressive gameplay is likely to get past Thiem, who will have to fire in all departments to have his chance. The showdown is expected to be a blockbuster and might feature some close tiebreakers.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in three sets.