The San Diego Padres’ new ownership has barely taken control, and they are already facing a difficult decision over one of the team’s biggest contracts. Kwanza Jones and José E. Feliciano have already made their World Series ambition clear. And they promised to spend “ambitiously” yet “judiciously”. While they inherited a team built to contend, the massive long-term contracts of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts have created a financial dilemma. And according to an MLB insider, Machado could be the one caught in the middle. 

“Tatis is the Padres’ best player and is in year six of a 14-year, $340 million extension. Bogaerts hasn’t been the same hitter since signing with the Padres, which leaves Machado,” Pat Ragazzo mentioned in his report, per Punchoutpitch. “And although Machado is having a down year, there are still plenty of teams that think the future Hall of Famer can help them.”

The MLB owners unanimously approved the sale of the Padres for a $3.9 billion valuation to ownership duo Kwanza and José last month. And the couple immediately established that winning the ring isn’t a distant goal anymore.

They want to start the process from the get-go and promised to spend to achieve that goal.

The franchise has an approximate payroll of $220 million this year. And to sign new and younger players, the Padres might be looking to offload some of their current stars. That’s where Machado becomes the center of that conversation. 

The 34-year-old signed an 11-year, $350 million contract that runs through 2033. He has an average annual salary of $31.8 million. On top of that, Machado agreed to a no-opt-out, no-trade clause. Meanwhile, Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year, $340 million extension that runs from 2021 to 2034. Plus, he doesn’t have a no-trade clause. 

This makes Tatis Jr. the better alternative. But there are a few things that don’t make him the obvious choice.

The first is his performance.

He has a slash line of .289/.357/.462 this season. The outfielder has recorded 77 RBI with 22 home runs so far. 

Machado, on the other hand, has a slight drop in his numbers.

He is batting at .221 with a .727 OPS. Although his 83 RBIs and 28 home runs put him above Tatis, it still doesn’t justify the slump. And it’s not just his numbers with the bat. 

Machado is earning just above $25 million this year. But FanGraphs reports that his salary will take a significant hike to $39 million starting next season. That seems like another crucial reason to offload a veteran who isn’t hitting the same way as he used to. This feels like an inherited obligation for the new owners.

As they are looking to manage the payroll with better producers, San Diego may let go of Machado.

Bogaerts is also on a 11-year, $280 million contract, but his annual salary of $25 million seems affordable.

Ragazzo believes that his .223 batting average and .645 OPS are unlikely to justify the money during an offseason trade. Tatis will also see a jump in his salary to $36 million, but not before 2029. That makes Manny Machado the easier option.

But this is not the first time the Padres have offloaded a big contract. 

The historical Shields contract

San Diego signed James Shields in 2015 for a 4-year, $75 million contract. It became the biggest free-agent deal in the franchise’s history. The Kansas City Royals ace was just off a World Series appearance.

He showed strong outings initially, with a 3.91 ERA and 216 Ks in his first season. But in 2016, he was struggling on the mound with a 4.28 ERA and a .222 win percentage. 

The Padres ended up trading him to the Chicago White Sox.

But they had to absorb $31 million of his remaining contract. It also came with a twist that eventually worked in their favor. 

San Diego agreed to absorb Shields’ remaining commitment on the condition that Chicago sends 17-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr.

Today, he is the face of the franchise. And the way he has performed over the years makes it all the more difficult to send him away. 

Less than a month ago, Jones and Feliciano came with a big promise.

They said, “It’s not lip service… We need to win the World Series. It’s that simple.”

While their ambition was clear, it has now put them in a difficult situation.

Considering the different factors, Manny Machado seems to be the most logical option for an offseason trade. But the veteran’s dedication to the team for the last 8 seasons and his experience won’t make the decision any easier for the new owners.