The Odds Are Stacked Against Jon Rahm at The Northern Trust 2021 – Can He Defy Them?

Published 08/23/2021, 1:58 PM EDT
Jun 18, 2021; San Diego, California, USA; Jon Rahm plays his shot from the second tee during the second round of the U.S. Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Golf Course. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports


Jon Rahm has been no ordinary player this season. He has taken the PGA Tour by storm and stunned everyone with an emphatic victory at U.S. Open 2021. Rahm is yet to win a non-major event in 2021, and The Northern Trust can be the tournament where he breaks the deadlock. However, the odds are not in his favor entering the final round. Why so? Let’s find out. 

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Golf is such an unpredictable sport and this statement needs no re-iteration here and then. A player holding a massive lead can crumble in the final round and gift the win to another player who started his Sunday about five strokes behind the leader. Anything can happen in this sport. 

As for Jon Rahm, he entered The Northern Trust’s final round as the tournament’s 54-hole leader. In his career, Rahm has 5 out of eight victories when entering the final round as an event’s 54-hole leader. This stat is pretty much against his favor, but another one is completely against him. 

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Aug 19, 2021; Jersey City, New Jersey, USA; Jon Rahm studies his putt on the 17th green during the first round of The Northern Trust golf tournament at the Liberty National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Can Jon Rahm clinch victory at The Northern Trust? 

It is quite easy to think that Jon Rahm will win the Northern Trust 2021. He started his final round as the joint-leader of the tournament at 16-under-par through three rounds. Cameron Smith shared the lead with him. 

However, golf reporter Justin Ray recently posted a startling piece of information on Twitter that indicates Rahm might not win the event after all. Here’s why: 

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Ray then provided more depth about the topic and added that “68.1% of winners on the PGA Tour this season have trailed entering the final round, the highest percentage in the last 40 years.” 

So does this mean that Jon Rahm has lesser chances of winning The Northern Trust 2021? The statistic definitely suggests that scenario. Rahm and Smith entered the final round carrying a one-stroke lead, and if Ray’s post turns out to be true, these two golfers won’t end up winning the tournament. 

But we can’t come to a concrete conclusion, can we? We’d only have to wait for the tournament to wrap up to see if Jon Rahm or Cameron Smith will break the streak. There is a healthy chance for either outcome. 

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Arjun Athreya

2102 articles

Arjun Athreya is a senior writer at Essentially Sports and has been contributing since early 2020. Having developed an avid interest in sports at an early age, he pursued a Journalism degree and graduated from Madras Christian College. Arjun manages the Golf division and its content, and primarily covers news pertaining to the NBA as well.

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