After suffering what he described as a “slightly more serious injury than we all expected” at the Barcelona Open, Carlos Alcaraz hoped for a swift return at the Madrid Open. Instead, the setback deepened, forcing him to miss both Madrid and withdraw from Roland Garros. With the additional decision to sit out the entire grass-court season, the former world No. 1 now faces a looming ranking-point crisis that could reshape his season.

Carlos Alcaraz was already facing a significant ranking-point drop after his Roland Garros triumph last year. Unfortunately, the points he earned on grass courts in 2025 are also set to vanish from his tally.

Last year, Alcaraz won the Queen’s Club title by defeating Jiri Lehecka in a thrilling three-set final. That victory earned him 500 ATP ranking points.  The Olympic silver medallist then advanced to the SW19 final, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in four sets. For reaching the final at Wimbledon, Alcaraz earned 1,200 ranking points.

At 23 years old, Alcaraz currently holds 11,960 points. With the grass and Roland Garros points set to drop, he will lose 1,700 points from his total. Even after this deduction, Alcaraz will remain in second place, with third-ranked Alexander Zverev trailing far behind on 5,705 points.

On paper, the gap between Alcaraz and Sinner after Wimbledon is 3,190 points. That margin could balloon to 7,190 points if Sinner wins both Roland Garros and Wimbledon this year.

Alcaraz’s chances of securing the year-end No. 1 ranking now appear all but over. Sinner, following his Italian Open triumph, currently sits atop the rankings with 14,750 points and is the heavy favourite for Roland Garros 2026.

Last year, Alcaraz beat Sinner in a memorable Roland Garros final, but there will be no repeat this year with the Spaniard sidelined. In terms of prize money, Alcaraz earned $546,881 by winning Queen’s and nearly $2,034,846 by finishing runner-up at Wimbledon. While the 2026 payouts for these events haven’t been revealed, they are expected to be similar.

Had Alcaraz matched his 2025 performances, he could have pocketed around $2.6 million. His absence now shifts both points and prize-money opportunities to Sinner.

The 24-year-old Italian now looks positioned to finish the year as world No. 1. Sinner previously held the year-end top spot in 2024 but finished second behind Alcaraz in 2025.

Currently, Sinner leads Alcaraz by 2,250 points in the ‘Live ATP Race to Turin’, largely due to his dominance in Masters 1000 events. With Alcaraz sidelined, that gap is likely to grow.

Jannik Sinner overtakes Carlos Alcaraz in the race for major titles

Apart from his growing ranking points advantage over Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner has now overtaken the Spaniard in their ‘Big Titles’ race. The 24-year-old achieved this milestone after winning the Internazionali d’Italia on Sunday in Rome.

Sinner, the home favourite, defeated Casper Ruud at the Foro Italico to claim his 16th ‘Big Title.’ These include Grand Slam victories, trophies from the Nitto ATP Finals, and ATP Masters 1000 tournaments.

At the AO earlier this year, Alcaraz led the tally with 15 ‘Big Titles’ to Sinner’s 11. However, the Italian has been unstoppable since then.

Sinner became the first player in ATP Masters 1000 history since 1990 to win the first five Masters 1000 tournaments of the year. He emerged victorious at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid, and Rome.

With this run, Sinner is just the second player ever to complete the Career Golden Masters by winning all nine Masters 1000 events. The only other player to achieve this feat is Novak Djokovic, who finished his set in 2018 at Cincinnati.

Adding to his record, Sinner lifted the trophy in Paris last November, extending his streak of Masters 1000 titles to six, the longest in series history.

He has now joined an elite group of seven players with at least 10 Masters 1000 trophies. The list includes Djokovic (40), Rafael Nadal (36), Roger Federer (28), Andre Agassi (17), Andy Murray (14), and Pete Sampras (11).

Sinner has also improved his efficiency in winning Big Titles. He now claims a title for every 4.4 tournaments he plays, surpassing Federer’s rate of 4.4, placing him fourth in series history. Only Djokovic (3.3), Nadal (3.5), and Alcaraz (3.9) have a better rate in ATP history.

Sinner earned his first Big Title three years ago in Toronto. Since then, he has won a trophy for every 2.1 Big Title events he has entered. This remarkable consistency underlines his dominance on tour and his ability to peak at the right moments.

With Roland Garros approaching, the Italian remains the heavy favourite to win another Grand Slam and complete his career Grand Slam, further cementing his growing legacy.