The race for the World No. 1 spot is heating up on the WTA circuit ahead of the US Open. There are three players who can dethrone Aryna Sabalenka from the top spot for the first time since October 2024. One contender has a path no other player shares. And as it turns out, she is the clear favorite to take over the rankings at the US Open, as she doesn’t even need to play the tournament in order to do that.

The one closest to her points tally is Elena Rybakina. Sabalenka currently has a points tally of 8575, while Rybakina is right behind her with 8141 points. The Belarusian enters the US Open as the defending champion, meaning that she will lose points unless she manages to win the tournament again. Looking at her current form, that seems to be very unlikely. Unlike her, Rybakina reached the Round of 16 at Flushing Meadows last year and thus won’t have a lot of points to defend.

The other two players who can take over the rankings at the US Open are Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff. While the former stands at 7265 points, the latter currently has 6704 points. Like Rybakina, Gauff is also defending fourth-round points at the US Open, while Pegula will have a lot more points to defend as she reached the semifinals last year.

Both Pegula and Gauff are currently among the most in-form players on the Tour and are coming fresh off their meeting in the Cincinnati Open. But they, too, have an uphill task in front of them as they will have to win the US Open to dethrone Sabalenka from the top spot. If they do not do so, then Rybakina is most likely to take over, no matter how many points she gains or loses at the Grand Slam.

Rybakina has gotten herself in such a position by improving her form in the hard-court season. After a disappointing third-round exit at Wimbledon, the Kazakh made a strong return at the National Bank Open a month later. She had a superb run in the tournament, defeating players like Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff on her way to the final.

Though Iga Swiatek got the better of her 6-2, 6-3 in the final, Rybakina still gained 240 points in the rankings through this display. This was because she reached the semifinal of the event last year and got a better result this year. This was followed by a run to the quarterfinals at the Cincinnati Masters. Swiatek once again got the better of her, but this time Rybakina retired while trailing the first set by 4-1.

Though the nature of the setback was never confirmed, it was suspected that she had suffered a left ankle injury. The setback has cast doubt over her participation in the US Open. But the World No. 2 has now confirmed that she has escaped a serious injury and is doing all she can to play at Flushing Meadows.

Elena Rybakina issues positive injury update ahead of the US Open

“Well, I picked up some injury last tournament, so I’m trying to do everything possible to recover, and for now it’s been going well,” she told The Mirror US. “Unfortunately, I was not on the court yet. I will try in the next few days. But it seems okay, so hopefully it’s going to be good for my first match.”

Though Rybakina has had ample time to recover from the injury, she is not in favor of rushing her return. She is yet to make her final decision on participating in the US Open.

“In total, I had like 10 days, and I still have a couple more to prepare. It depends also on when it’s going to be my match, but we just don’t want to rush, and yeah, just taking my time to be 100% sure,” she added.

Having a win-loss record of 8-6, the US Open is certainly not Rybakina’s strongest Grand Slam. She hasn’t gone beyond the Round of 16 in the tournament and has suffered early exits in most of the editions she has played.

Rybakina will be aiming to change her average record at the Grand Slam by making a deep run. She may have form on her side, but the injury that she sustained in Cincinnati could play a big role in her US Open campaign. It remains to be seen how far she manages to go at Flushing Meadows this time around.