Last year, in the 2024 ATP Finals, Carlos Alcaraz’s campaign unexpectedly ended after he was eliminated in the round-robin stage. The Spaniard, who was reportedly not at his best physically back then, returned stronger in the 2025 season. And after having an impeccable year on court, Alcaraz is now aiming for his maiden ATP Finals trophy. However, the journey to winning the trophy won’t be a cake walk, for he must buckle up to face a strong challenge from the defending champion Jannik Sinner’s end.

Sinner and Alcaraz are joined by Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, and Lorenzo Musetti (replacing Novak Djokovic) in Turin. However, barring any major upsets, most analysts and fans believe the trophy is either Sinner’s or Alcaraz’s to lose. Adding to that is the race to the top, with the Italian and Spaniard playing for the year-end No. 1 ranking. Only 250 points separate the two, with the final result depending on what unfolds at Turin. But amidst the whole Sinner vs. Alcaraz debate, do any of the other finalists have what it takes to challenge the two at the ATP Finals?

Going by the rankings and the recent match stats, the chances seem low. When it comes to the rankings, the battle for World No.1 is firmly a two-horse race. Sinner is in first with 11,500 points and Alcaraz second with 11,250, with Alexander Zverev rounding out the top 3. The German, however, has been mathematically ruled out of challenging Sincaraz for a while, as he possesses fewer than half as many ATP points (5,560) as the No. 2-ranked Alcaraz.

But what about the ATP Finals itself? Jannik Sinner is undoubtedly the man to beat, coming off a stellar indoor run where he won back-to-back titles in Vienna and Paris. Not only that, but he also extended his indoor win streak to a whopping 26 wins. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, is shakier indoors, with his unexpected first-round exit to Britain’s Cameron Norrie in Paris. His 14 losses out of 45 indoor matches say it all.

Nonetheless, the stats say it all: this season when both Sinner and Alcaraz have played a tournament, no other player has won it. Which is to say that the 6 other players in Turin have their task cut out for them.

Breaking down the field

First is Alexander Zverev, the third-best player in the world. Though he’s shown flashes of brilliance, Zverev has had a streaky season, with early Grand Slam exits and difficult losses in finals. He lost the Australian Open final to Jannik Sinner, as well as Vienna (despite playing an excellent game). The German was then bounced in Paris by Sinner, though he struggled with injury. Zverev may have won the year-end finals twice before, but Sinner will prove a formidable challenge once more. As for Carlos Alcaraz, though his indoor form has left much to be desired, he’s beaten Zverev in some clutch matches, such as the semifinal of Cincinnati this year and the French Open final last year.

Next is Ben Shelton, the youngest finalist, who’s had a difficult few weeks coming back from the shoulder injury sustained at the US Open. He may be making his debut and has suffered 3 straight defeats to Alcaraz and 6 to Sinner (though Shelton won their first-ever match), but Shelton’s pace, aggression, and mammoth serve, if utilized well, could potentially throw a spanner in the works. That said, both Sinner and Alcaraz have easily routed Shelton’s weak return game and his backhand before.

Joining him as the second American in Turin is Taylor Fritz. Like Shelton, Fritz’s explosive serve is his biggest weapon, alongside a powerful backhand and forehand. But up against Sinner and Alcaraz, those weapons have been found out, as it takes more than a power-serving baseline game to unseat either of the two. Fritz is often be overwhelmed in long rallies (Sincaraz’s bread and butter), and drop shots can be his undoing – a fact that Alcaraz utilized to full effect at the Six Kings Slam last month, where he won 12 out of 13 drop shots in his win against Fritz.

Felix Auger-Aliassime makes his return to the year-end finals by 5 points, after his last appearance in 2022, but immediately faces Sinner in his opening match. Auger-Aliassime fought valiantly against Sinner in the US Open semis, even taking a set off the Italian, but ultimately was unable to keep up, losing in four sets. He was beaten by Sinner again just days ago at the Paris Masters final, despite fighting hard again, demonstrating just how imperious the Italian can be.

Then there’s Alex de Minaur, who fended off the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud to reach his second year-end finals. Though he’s played well enough to make it, he lost the opener to Alcaraz and isn’t expected to beat Sinner, who boasts a 12-0 head-to-head record against the Australian. Lorenzo Musetti steps in after Novak Djokovic‘s withdrawal to complete the top 8, though his six straight defeats to Alcaraz and three straight to Sinner don’t bode well for his chances to topple either of the two.

Now, as the ATP Finals unfold, time will tell whether anyone can truly challenge the dominance of the top 2 at the end of the season. All six will try to aim for the trophy and the $5 million prize, but defeating Alcaraz and Sinner is far easier said than done.