In 2014, Serena Williams stepped onto the court at Arthur Ashe Stadium and needed just 75 minutes to win her third consecutive US Open title. No woman has matched that hard-court dominance since. Now, after winning back-to-back crowns in 2024 and 2025, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka enters Flushing Meadows just seven wins away from repeating history.

However, Sabalenka faces a far steeper path than Williams did during her prime. One early loss would not only end her three-peat bid, but it could also cost her the World No. 1 ranking.

Completing a three-peat at a single Grand Slam remains one of tennis’s rarest feats. In the Open Era, only a handful of legends, including Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, and Serena Williams, have won three straight titles at Flushing Meadows. Beyond the historic trophy, Sabalenka enters the tournament at 99 consecutive weeks as World No. 1. Reaching the final would push her past the 100-week milestone.

But after a 2026 season marked by early tournament exits and missed title defenses, Sabalenka enters the final major of the year with zero safety net.

Sabalenka’s Path Towards Greatness

Sabalenka’s US Open 2026 challenge will start with Colombia’s Camila Osorio. If she goes on to clear all the stages till the semis, the projected path could give fans a replay of the 2024 US Open Women’s final, which means Jessica Pegula will be waiting for her, provided Pegula reaches that stage.

On the other side of the draw, the second-seeded Elena Rybakina is projected to take on 2023 champion Coco Gauff for a place in the final.

So, this means that for Sabalenka to match Serena’s record, she might have to go through the likes of Pegula, Rybakina or Gauff.

The Contenders Aiming to Dethrone Sabalenka

Sabalenka’s biggest immediate threat is World No. 2 Elena Rybakina, who holds a direct path to the top ranking. Unlike Sabalenka’s turbulent summer, Rybakina has put together a steady 2026 campaign anchored by her Australian Open victory in January.

The ranking math heavily favors the challenger. If Rybakina reaches the semifinals at Arthur Ashe Stadium, she automatically captures the World No. 1 ranking, regardless of Sabalenka’s performance. In fact, if Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Jessica Pegula all exit early, Rybakina could take the top spot without winning a single match in New York.

Home-field favorites Gauff and Pegula pose an equally dangerous threat. Gauff arrives in Flushing Meadows fresh off a title run in Cincinnati, while Pegula reached back-to-back finals in Washington, D.C., and Cincinnati. For either American to claim World No. 1 for the first time, they must win the US Open title while relying on Rybakina to fall before the semifinals.

In a 2026 season already defined by unexpected upsets and new Grand Slam champions across the tour, Sabalenka has no room for error. Her pursuit of history begins this week, with her legacy, her title, and her World No. 1 ranking all on the line.