The season has kicked off, with the Australian Open already in the rearview mirror, as players hit the Middle East hard courts. The ATP 500 in Doha promises a stellar lineup of the world’s top talent. While a showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner seemed inevitable, the tournament draw now hints at unexpected twists for the top seeds. 

Carlos Alcaraz will enter the Qatar Open as the number one seed. He returns to the tournament with a relatively smooth path projected to the semifinals. His first match will be against Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech.

Rinderknech is dangerous with his big serve, though he has struggled early in the season. In the second round, Alcaraz could face Valentin Royer or a qualifier.

If he advances, the quarterfinals could bring a matchup with Jaume Munar, Karen Khachanov, or Marton Fucsovics.

The semifinals may feature a clash against Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, or Stefanos Tsitsipas. The final could pit him against Jannik Sinner or the likes of Alexander Bublik or Jiri Lehecka.

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For Italian Jannik Sinner, Doha marks a return to the ATP circuit after his Australian Open semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic.

The draw is more challenging for Sinner. He opens against Tomas Machac, who can be dangerous on any day.

In later rounds, Sinner may meet Alexei Popyrin or Jakub Mensik. Both players are threats on fast courts.

The semifinals could see him face Alexander Bublik, Arthur Fils, or Jiri Lehecka. A potential dream final would be against Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, or the defending champion Andrey Rublev.

The ATP 500 tournament follows the WTA event of the same name. The total prize pool exceeds $3 million. The winner will earn $550,000, the finalist $300,000, semifinals $160,000, quarterfinals $90,000, the round of 16 $50,000, and the first round $30,000. 

ATP points are 500 for the winner, 300 for the finalist, 180 for the semifinals, 90 for quarterfinals, and 45 for the round of 16. 

With Djokovic now absent, Sinner has a strong chance to challenge Alcaraz for the top ranking.

Sinner seizes prime chance to surpass Alcaraz as number one

Carlos Alcaraz extended his lead over Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open by winning the title. Sinner, meanwhile, lost to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.

Despite a 2,850-point gap between them before the Qatar Open, Sinner now has a strong chance to reclaim the world number one ranking.

Sinner missed three months of the 2025 season due to an ATP ban following his AO win. This absence created a period where he was not defending any ranking points.

After the Grand Slam, Sinner returned to the ATP Tour at the Italian Open in early May. That three-month gap gives him an opportunity to make up significant ground on Alcaraz.

Sinner will have the chance to compete in four ATP 1000 events: Miami, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, and Madrid. In effect, he has a “free hit” to gain ranking points.

Even winning just a few tournaments over the next three months could allow Sinner to overtake Alcaraz as world number one. 

Alcaraz, on the other hand, did not have an outstanding 2025 while Sinner was banned. He won only one ATP 1000 event at Monte Carlo, leaving many points to defend.

He also reached the semifinals of Indian Wells, which is another chunk of points he must protect. He will likely be relieved he exited early against David Goffin in Miami.

Elsewhere, Alcaraz reached the Barcelona Open final and the Qatar Open quarterfinal. These results add more pressure for the next three months of competition.

With the Qatar Open now underway, both Alcaraz and Sinner will have key opportunities to shape the rankings. The tournament could play a decisive role in the battle for the top ATP spot.