There is a question that is going around the Caja Mágica this week that nobody can really answer yet. But Daniil Medvedev has articulated it better than anyone. Rafael Jodar is the name on everyone’s lips at the Madrid Open. The 19-year-old Spaniard, whose world ranking was in the 900s as recently as last year, has burst into the top 40 on the strength of a clay-court campaign that has left seasoned observers scratching their heads. 

Earlier this month, he claimed his first ATP title at the Grand Prix Hassan II in Marrakech before reaching the semifinals of the Barcelona Open last week, and is now through to the quarterfinal stage of the Madrid Open, a Masters 1000 event. Along the way, he has toppled fifth seed Alex de Minaur and 27th seed Joao Fonseca, and will face world no. 1 Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinal on Wednesday. While most players at his age are toiling in Challenger tournaments, Jodar is playing and winning at the very top. The crowd at the Caja Mágica is hungry for Spain to have a Rafael Nadal-like champion in the making, currently embodied by Carlos Alcaraz, and now Jodar is embracing it.

Medvedev, after his third-round victory over Nicolai Budkov Kjær, was asked about Jodar in the mixed zone. What followed was the most honest reaction anyone has offered for the teenager’s situation in the draw. 

“I haven’t seen much, but I watched the first set yesterday and, obviously, some highlights. I think it’s absolutely incredible what he’s doing for his age. Especially not just now that he’s beating all these players, but considering where he’s coming from like, 900th last year, and breaking into the top 40. It’s very rare for someone to do that, so I think he’s incredibly talented. And then the question is always: will he become one of those guys who reaches the final of every Grand Slam? Or is he just a good player? You never know, but he’s playing incredible tennis and it’s fun to watch,” Medvedev said. 

The way he puts it is very Medvedev, not condescending, not hyperbolic, but clear. The difference between a player who can maintain a high performance standard across all courts and conditions for years and a player who can run with the best for a while and then find the competition has caught up is the question that every teenage talent must answer. Carlos Alcaraz answered it emphatically. Holger Rune is currently answering the question. Jodar is just being posed the question. 

What is interesting about the assessment is who has delivered it. The Russian has lived through the same process from teenage prodigy to Grand Slam finalist, to world No. 1. He has a better idea than most about what it takes to make the transition of separating themselves from the ones who plateau. His judgment is not a verdict at all.  It is an honest acknowledgement that nobody knows yet, and that the honest answer is the only interesting one.

The Jodar question was not the only highlight from Medvedev’s appearance in the mixed zone. The 30-year-old also gave a realistic view of his own play, and you could hear the genuine surprise in his voice as he was pleasantly surprised by how the red clay in Madrid has been playing to his strengths. 

“I prefer hard courts” Daniil Medvedev on his current stint at the Madrid Open

Two wins on clay after a devastating defeat in Monte-Carlo is a huge morale booster for the Russian. The win for Matteo Berrettini came in 47 minutes, and it was the first double bagel loss of Daniil Medvedev’s career in Monaco. The loss ended with his racket being bashed, the crowd at the Principality looking on, puzzled. So far in Madrid, it’s a different story. 

“Well, in general, I prefer hard courts or even grass, but especially hard courts, for so many different reasons. But I know I can play well on clay too. And I’m happy to have succeeded here, because I didn’t manage to do so in Monte Carlo. Here I’m playing really good tennis, aggressive forehand, backhand, and serve. I’m really happy about that,” Medvedev stated. 

The aggressiveness he mentions is the key. Medvedev’s best play on clay is a compact version of his hard-court style: he plays flat, stealing time and avoiding the high-spin rallies that are the natural strength of the surface. When it does, it cancels out Clay’s strengths. When it fails, as we saw in Monte Carlo, the surface overpowers the player.

Next up for Medvedev is a third-round match against Flavio Cobolli. He has clear views on the Italian. “Flavio, we know each other very well. He can play very well, he probably prefers clay to other surfaces. He tends to use a little more spin and things like that. But I feel good.”

The self-belief is understated – which, when Medvedev is playing well on a surface he doesn’t enjoy playing on, is almost always the most dangerous. Unfortunately, the self-belief did not result in a win against the 10th seed. The Russian put up a fight; his serve was on point, but in the end, Cobolli won the small moments in the match, which led him to register his first win against the former world No. 1. The 23-year-old will either face Alexander Zverev or Jakub Mensik in the last eight on Thursday.