The stakes are sky-high for Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open. Chasing her second final in Melbourne, the fifth seed faces America’s Jessica Pegula next. Both players are on fire. Rybakina has stretched her winning streak to 19 tour-level matches since October. For Pegula, the challenge is steep but exciting as she eyes her first shot at the Australian Open final. Can the Kazakh keep her charge going?

Rybakina stormed into the semifinals on January 28 with a sizzling win over World No. 2 Iga Swiatek. The fiery clash went her way as she stunned the Pole 7-5, 6-1 in Wednesday’s quarterfinals. Rybakina caught fire, winning eight of the last nine games to wrap up the 1-hour, 35-minute match and level their rivalry at 6-6. After dropping serve in the opening game, the 2025 WTA ace leader found her groove fast.

Now comes another familiar test. Pegula is no easy opponent, and their head-to-head stands locked at 3-3. The American arrives in sizzling form after taking out compatriot Amanda Anisimova in straight sets. For Rybakina, the key will be to keep the same rhythm and precision that dismantled Swiatek.

“You can play indoor, you can play outdoor, sun, it can be [a] night match,” Rybakina said with a calm smile after the win. “So all these conditions [are] a bit tricky. I think probably now I’m more calm and going deeper in tournament.”

Elena Rybakina is bringing more than confidence to Melbourne this year. She’s arriving with a serious weapon. Against Iga Swiatek, the Kazakh impressed by winning a remarkable 93% of points behind her first serve in the opening set, even though she landed just 41% of them. Swiatek, meanwhile, could manage only 64% on her own first serve as she faced constant pressure from Rybakina’s heavy returns.

“Really happy with the last few matches. It has been challenging with the sun, but finding a way. For now, the serve is really working, so hopefully I can continue like this,” Elena said after taking down the world No. 2.

Rybakina hasn’t dropped a set all tournament, and her statistics speak loud and clear. She owns a 7-1 record in the 2026 season, holds a 19-6 record at the Australian Open, and has won 68% of her matches on hard courts. Those numbers underline how comfortable she feels on this surface.

At 26, the world No. 5 looks ready for another big run. She is the only active player to have beaten Swiatek more than once at a Grand Slam. Out of her four matches against top-two players at majors, she has won three, taking down Swiatek twice and Ons Jabeur once. It feels like a proper resurgence after last season, when she failed to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the first time since 2020.

Her serve has been the engine driving that comeback. Rybakina fired a tour-leading 516 aces last year, 143 more than Linda Noskova, who finished second. She already leads the women’s singles field at Melbourne Park with 35 aces. Can the sixth seed take on that challenge and best her?

Jessica Pegula’s chances against Elena Rybakina in the semifinals

The 31-year-old remains unbeaten in sets at the Australian Open and looks closer than ever to her first Grand Slam title. Her best previous result came at the 2024 US Open, where she fell just short in the final against Aryna Sabalenka. But this time, the momentum feels different.

“It’s awesome,” Pegula said after reaching her first Australian semi-final. “I thought it’s got to be coming (a semi-final), I feel like I play really good tennis here, I like the conditions here. I knew she was going to step it up in the second set, but I told myself to keep holding serve.”

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Jessica’s journey has been impressive from the start. Against Anisimova, she showed her composure and clarity under pressure, winning 16 of her 25 second-serve points (.640). Anisimova, meanwhile, threw in seven double faults, all in a second set that could have gone either way.

This marks Pegula’s second straight major semifinal and her third overall. She’s now aiming for her second final in three attempts, making her the only woman in the Open Era to reach her first three Grand Slam semifinals after turning 30. The last American standing even knocked out three compatriots along the way, including defending champion Madison Keys on Monday.

Her run to the final four has been quietly spectacular. By toppling the reigning champion and the fourth seed, Pegula has reminded everyone how steady and skillful she can be. Her serve has fired when she’s needed it most, and her 8-1 record this season shows just how confident she’s been. She’s also built a solid 21-8 career mark in Melbourne and has won 68 percent of her matches on hard courts.

To challenge Elena Rybakina, Pegula must bring the full variety in her game. She must those tricky drop shots, sharp volleys, and clever changes of pace. If she can keep Rybakina moving instead of letting her launch from the baseline, she’ll have every chance to turn this dream run into something truly special.

This is their first meeting in a Grand Slam. Elena won their last encounter at the 2025 WTA finals semifinals. Will Jessica Pegula be able to take her down? Or will Rybakina mark her second AO final?