The 2026 season opens with immediate pressure for many of the biggest names across the WTA and ATP Tours, as heavy ranking points loom in the first month. Significant movement is expected by the end of January, particularly for players who closed last season in shaky form and now face a fight to halt a steep slide. Here are five names at risk of a rankings collapse as the new year begins.

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev was once widely tipped to win Grand Slam titles once the era of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic drew to a close. Many expected him to take over as a major force in men’s tennis. However, those ambitions have been stalled.

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have leapfrogged Zverev in recent seasons.  Zverev’s defeat to Sinner in last year’s Australian Open final remains a painful memory for the German.

Before the final, Zverev believed he was ready to win his first major. He said, “It’s going to be a tough match for both of us.” The straight-sets defeat, however, left him stunned.

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Reflecting on the loss, he added, “Now, for the third time, seeing somebody lift the trophy and me standing next to that is difficult because there’s nothing more I want than to be able to hold one of those trophies in my hands.” The defeat marked a low point in his career.

Zverev then endured a difficult second half of the 2025 season. His form and confidence collapsed. Despite his struggles, he noted, “My 2025 results were considered more negative than they really were. It wasn’t the year I wanted it to be, but I still finished 2025 in third place in the ATP rankings despite several injuries.”

The pressure is on as Zverev prepares for this year’s Australian Open. He is defending 1,300 ranking points, making a strong start essential. He admitted, “Sinner and Alcaraz are able to show up in Melbourne and play their best tennis right away, but I need more time than them. I need several matches before I feel completely comfortable on the court.”

If Zverev struggles early in Melbourne, he risks a sharp drop in the rankings. An early exit could see him fall to around No. 10 by the end of the month.

The German star now faces a crucial challenge. He must rediscover his form quickly to avoid further damage and regain his status among the game’s elite heading into 2026.

Ben Shelton

Ben Shelton reached the semi-finals of last year’s Australian Open. As a result, he will lose 800 ranking points when the 2026 edition of the tournament begins later this month.

Unlike Zverev, Shelton should have reason for optimism. The conditions in Melbourne are expected to suit his big-hitting game. However, last year presented challenges that disrupted his momentum.

In 2025, Shelton won his first ATP Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open in Toronto. He also made deep runs in Grand Slams, reaching Wimbledon quarterfinals as well. These performances highlighted his rising potential.

He achieved another major milestone by qualifying for the year-end Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. Unfortunately, a left shoulder injury forced him to retire during his US Open third-round match. It was a major blow at his home Slam, where a deep run was widely anticipated.

The injury kept him out for several weeks, forcing withdraw from other tournaments. On his return, Shelton admitted it was hard to maintain consistent high-level tennis. He suffered early losses at the Shanghai Masters and Basel. His ATP Finals debut ended with a 0-3 round-robin record, failing to advance.

Despite setbacks, Shelton has experience on the big stage. He was a quarter-finalist at the Australian Open three years ago. He now has greater maturity and more experience to handle the pressures of Melbourne.

Still, his form will be closely watched. If he struggles to defend last year’s points, Shelton could see a drop in the rankings after the Australian Open, adding pressure to his early 2026 season.

Madison Keys

Last year’s surprise Australian Open champion struggled to maintain momentum after her breakthrough in Melbourne. The American started 2025 strongly, winning the Adelaide International before claiming her first Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

However, she lost her way in the second half of the season. She ended 2025 prematurely at the year-end women’s tennis finals. She elected not to play her final scheduled round-robin match due to illness.

Despite the setbacks, she reached a career-high ranking of No. 5. She finished the season with two titles and her highest year-end ranking since 2016.

Now, heading into the Australian Open, Madison Keys faces the pressure to defend her title. Expectations have risen after her breakthrough win. Speaking at a pre-tournament press conference at the Brisbane International, she said, “I mean, I think that obviously after you win a Slam, expectations go up. So I think I have played the past year with higher expectations, but there are so many great players, and everyone is playing very, very good tennis right now.”

She also emphasized that success is never solely her responsibility. “So you also know that it’s not solely up to you. I think I’m really just trying to go out and start the year off as best as I can and play some really good tennis. Excited to see how all of the chips fall.”

Reflecting on her life after the Grand Slam, she added, “I don’t think my life changed too much [after winning the Australian Open]. I have spent many, many years on tour now and have had different levels of success.”

If she fails to advance beyond the quarter-finals this year, she risks dropping out of the top 16 in the rankings. Her position will also depend on how other players perform during the tournament, adding extra pressure to defend her Melbourne crown.

Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa faces the risk of a significant slide in the WTA rankings. She is defending 800 ranking points after reaching the Australian Open semi-finals last year.

The Spanish star has struggled with a string of injury problems in recent years. She has even admitted that her physical battles brought her close to quitting tennis.

The Spaniard’s last appearance on tour came in Beijing in late September. She retired mid-match against Karolina Muchova. However, despite these setbacks, she now seems to be moving toward a more hopeful path as she eyes a return.

Even on her birthday, when tributes poured in from fans and the Australian Open’s social media page, she hinted at a comeback by writing, “🥹❤️ can’t wait to come back! Thank you.” It marked a hopeful shift after months of struggles.

In an interview with AE World, Badosa also reflected on her return and the lessons learned during her time away. “I’m excited to compete again, feeling confident and ready to give my 100% again,” she said.

She also highlighted her priorities moving forward. “My main goal is consistency: staying healthy, competing at the highest level and enjoying the process. Of course, I also want to fight for important tournaments; that’s always a goal. Off the track, I’m looking forward to continuing to grow and enjoy the road.”

Badosa is now aiming to find form in 2026. She has shared images of promising training sessions on her social media. A strong showing in Melbourne will be crucial to secure ranking points and position herself well for the top WTA Tour events throughout the season.

Jack Draper

Jack Draper was the stand-out player between March and May last season. However, injury has always been his biggest rival, and that proved true again.

He has not played since the US Open, where he was forced to retire with an arm injury. Draper had hoped for a strong return, but setbacks continued.

He recently pulled out of the Victorian Plumbing UTS London Grand Final. In a statement, he said, “I’ve been working hard to be back for UTS in London but frustratingly I’m just not quite ready.”

Draper later announced his withdrawal from the Australian Open on social media. “Unfortunately me and my team have decided not to head out to Australia this year. It’s a really, really tough decision, obviously Australia being a Grand Slam, it’s one of the biggest tournaments in our sport,” he said in a video posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

He explained the reasoning behind the decision. “However, I’ve had this injury for a long time. I’m at the very, very end stages of the process and to step back on court into best-of-five-set tennis so soon just doesn’t seem like the smart decision right now for me and my tennis.”

Draper reflected on the challenges he has faced. “I’ve obviously been through a fair amount of setbacks so far. But by far and away this one has been the most difficult, most complex one that I’ve had.”

All of Draper’s ranking points came from the first half of 2025, when he won the Indian Wells Masters and reached the Madrid final. He now needs to regain fitness and form quickly, or his ranking could drop sharply by mid-2026.

With the names now out, who do you think will fight for glory in the first half of the season, and who might see their rankings slip? Share your predictions in the comments below!