In a few hours, the Rod Laver Arena will see a full attendance, all to view a terrific match between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. Both players have faced each other multiple times on a tennis court, and their shared history is a testament to their greatness.

For the Spaniard, this tournament will be his chase for his seventh Grand Slam. However, for Djokovic, this will probably be his final Australian Open and potentially the 38-year-old’s last push for that elusive 25th Grand Slam title. And here are five reasons why the Serb will win the 2026 edition of the tournament over his Spaniard rival.

Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open history

Someone like Novak Djokovic, his career has been surrounded by glory from every corner of every tennis court. And this sentiment is also applicable when we talk about his history at the Australian Open.

Not one, but the Serb has a record ten Australian Open titles (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023) to his name, with the latest one secured during the 2023 edition, where Djokovic absolutely destroyed Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets 6-3, 7-6, 7-6.

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That entire edition also saw him winning all his matches in straight sets, including the second-round game against France’s Enzo Couacaud. Now, three years later in the 2026 edition of the tournament, he will be planning something quite similar.

Their past Australian Open clash

For Novak Djokovic, his 2025 Australian Open quarterfinal was a dramatic victory over Carlos Alcaraz. The then 37-year-old was going through an injury, but he handed over the Spaniard a match to remember, securing the win 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

“It was possibly one of the best matches of the tournament on the men’s side. It felt like a final of a Slam and I wish it was. We both gave it our all,” the Serb said following the match. Alcaraz, then 21, entered the tournament motivated with a single goal, which was to win the Grand Slam. And this looked quite possible at the end of the first set when Djokovic seemed to have issues with his upper left leg.

However, from the second set, the Serb made his comeback, winning the match. Impressed by his skill, even Alcaraz said, “When Novak plays at this level, it’s really difficult. It was a really close match.” Sadly, during his semifinal match against Alexander Zverev, Djokovic suffered a muscle tear and had to retire from the tournament. This, though, won’t be the case for this year.

The hard court maestro

Are you aware that Novak Djokovic holds a hard-court Grand Slam titles record? He has a whopping 14 titles on the surface. Last year, at the US Open, he proved himself to be the best one out there on a hard court when he won his third-round match over Cam Norrie 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-2, 6-3.

This victory put him ahead of Roger Federer (191 hard-court wins), as Djokovic secured his 192nd triumph on the surface. However, humble as always he said post-match: “And honestly, I was pleasantly surprised with Norrie’s level. I think he was playing really aggressive. I was not used to him playing so close to the line and just really taking the ball early, particularly on the forehand side.”

He added, “Credit to him for fighting and playing some really good level, particularly in the second set and beginning of the third. But I guess when it mattered, I came up with some really good points, good shots, good serves. Serving performance definitely the best so far. Yeah, these kind of matches and performances always give me hope that I can go far, challenge the best players in the world.”

But when we compare Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic on a hard court, here’s where the Serb holds the lead. Both of them have played against each other three times on the surface, with the 38-year-old winning two of them: one at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati, and the other at the 2025 Australian Open. His only loss against Alcaraz came at the US Open semifinal, 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2, where Djokovic tried to come back and failed.

Tough Australian Open conditions

Remember the 2025 Shanghai Masters? “It’s crazy humid, to be honest. I don’t recall the weather being so humid in China. I’ve been saying it before … it’s brutal when you have over 80% of humidity day after day, for the guys, particularly when they’re playing during the day with heat, with sun, you know, it’s even, even more brutal. For me, biologically a bit more challenging to deal with it,” Djokovic said, talking about the grueling weather.

Fast forward to the 2026 Australian Open, and the conditions are a bit similar. According to reports, Melbourne’s weather peaked at 29.8°C (85.6°F) during the match, with humidity and radiant heat that contributed to the Aussie heat. This made Carlos Alcaraz feel discomfort during his semifinal match against Alexander Zverev.

The Spaniard had told his team that he had thrown up, which raised immediate concerns about his condition. Furthermore, he suffered through cramps in his upper right leg and groin late during the third set. However, the semifinal picture for Djokovic was a bit different.

Sure, he threw up too during the match against Jannik Sinner, but the Serb was playing more focused tennis. Djokovic defeated the Italian 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in four hours and nine minutes and said about the upcoming match, “I just hope I’ll have enough gas to stand toe to toe with him and let God decide the winner.”

While the two will head towards the Australian Open final with a few health concerns, Djokovic looks the healthiest. And his mentality will benefit him more.

Novak Djokovic isn’t chasing anyone

Recently, at the Australian Open press conference, a reporter mentioned that Novak Djokovic chased Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer throughout his early career, and now he chases Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. This comment did not sit well with the Serb.

“I’m chasing Jannik and Carlos? In which sense? So I’m always the chaser and never being chased?” questioned the 38-year-old, and said, “Well, I find it a little bit disrespectful that you kind of miss out on what happened in between where the times when I started chasing, as you say, Rafa and Roger, and now that I’m chasing Carlos and Jannik, and there’s probably about a 15-year period in between where I was dominating the Grand Slams.”

His mentality is simple. For Djokovic, he has already tasted his fair share of glory. Now, with the time he has left in tennis, he just wants to keep his goals clear and focus on himself, rather than chasing the new stars of the sport.

“As I said, I don’t feel like I’m chasing. I’m creating my own history. And I think I’ve been very clear when I say that my intention is always to, in terms of achievements and objectives and results, I want to get to the championship match in every tournament, particularly slams. And those slams are one of the biggest reasons why I keep on competing and playing tennis. No. I’m going to fight until the last shot, the last point, and do my very best to challenge them,” he added.

Djokovic is fully committed to that potential 25th Grand Slam title. So, with this level of determination and the performances in the tournament, he clearly shows himself as the one to lift that Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.