The ceiling conversation for Hailey Baptiste has definitely started a week after one of the most shocking upsets of the 2026 season. One of the great American servers of his generation, John Isner, has chimed in on the “Nothing Major Show” with a warm but measured verdict: top 20, not top 10. Not yet. 

“Not yet in my mind,” Isner said when asked whether Baptiste could break into the WTA top 10 by year’s end. “She is up to 25 in the world. She has a big game, has a lot of swag. Most importantly she has the belief now. When you beat the most dominant player in women’s tennis, I don’t care what the surface is, that is going to give you a lot of confidence.”

The belief Isner alludes to was earned in Madrid on April 28, in the most dramatic manner possible. Baptiste saved six match points in a two-hour and 30-minute win over world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(6), to advance to her first WTA 1000 semifinal.  The victory was the first top-five win of her career and was against a player who had been almost impossible to beat all season. The win ended Sabalenka’s 15-match winning streak and was the first time a player has defeated the Belarusian from match points down since Iga Swiatek in the 2024 Madrid final.

The four-time Grand Slam champion found herself at the end of the tie-break with a sixth match point at 6-5 in the third set, before Baptiste won three straight points to snatch the victory. There was a moment of silence at Caja Magica. “In the beginning it was a little difficult for me to find the ball and get comfortable,” Baptiste said. “But once I did, I was able to execute the game plan really well.”

Isner was full of admiration for the performance without letting it rewrite his overall assessment. “It’s a surprising result to beat Sabalenka but she came through in the clutch so well in that match. To save six match points is extraordinary,” he said. “It’s another American player to root for. She hits such a big ball from the back of the court. She’s very good and it’s awesome to see. She has a lot of personality as well.”

The victory wasn’t a fluke, either. The American had met Sabalenka only a few weeks prior at the Miami Open, where she was forced to battle her in a hard-fought two-setter and lost. She took that match as a model. “I had a better idea of how to play her, and how I should play,” she said in Madrid. “So I think I just went in trying to play my game, still doing the same things I’ve been doing. But I had a few adjustments I needed to make from the last time we played.”

The numbers from the match were staggering. The 30th seed broke Sabalenka six times, the most of any opponent in the 2026 season, and served 12 aces, again the most in a single WTA-level clay-court match against Sabalenka in her career. It also added Baptiste’s ninth WTA 1000 main-draw win for 2026, which is a career high for a single season. The rise has been steep. At this stage, last year she was ranked 88th. She’s now in the Top 25.

Yet for the former world No. 8, the path looks impressive and looks like it can go the distance. “In the last couple of years she has not shown that level but now she has. She is young and has a lot of runway ahead of her,” he said. His conclusion was clear. “Top 10? I am not going to say she is going to get there this year. She looks to me to be a top 20 player for sure and that’s really cool, because she was not on anyone’s radar I don’t think prior to this year.”

The bigger picture for American Women’s Tennis

The circumstances surrounding Hailey Baptiste’s ascendance make it even more interesting. Aryna Sabalenka is almost inevitable, and yet four other American women have beaten her at key moments in the past 16 months. Madison Keys won the 2025 Australian Open, Coco Gauff won the 2025 French Open, Amanda Anisimova defeated her in the 2025 Wimbledon semifinal, and Jessica Pegula has beaten her as well. Baptiste’s victory in Madrid has added her name to their list, although her ranking is not yet on par with theirs. 

She is currently the sixth-ranked American behind Gauff, Pegula, Anisimova, Iva Jovic and Keys. The road to the top 10 is crowded with her own compatriots. However, the conviction that John Isner touched upon is true, and it has been mounting for some time. Former world No. 1 Tracy Austin said it simply on the Tennis Channel: “It’s incredible to see her improvement. The mental work that she’s done to trust herself against somebody who has been in those big moments so many more times.”

Baptiste’s mom, Shari, had set up a GoFundMe page a decade ago to raise money for her 15-year-old daughter’s career. It is a path that the 24-year-old has traveled to reach the top 25 of the WTA, and a victory over the world No. 1 on her resume. Isner might not be supporting her for the top 10 this year. But given how 2026 has gone so far, dismissing Hailey Baptiste entirely feels like the riskier bet.