Elena Rybakina did not look for excuses after one of the biggest upsets of this year’s Wimbledon. The second seed and 2022 champion was beaten 7-6(4), 6-1 by 25th seed Elise Mertens in the third round. Following the loss, she didn’t beat around the bush and gave a blunt response about exactly where things went wrong.

“My serve didn’t work,” she said in her press conference. “This wasn’t the result I wanted. Obviously, I’m not happy. I had quite a few break opportunities in the first set. Then I lost my serve too easily, I made a lot of double faults, and my first-serve percentage was very low. Today, the serve simply didn’t work. I also didn’t feel the energy was right. There are many things I’m not satisfied with.”

All the numbers supported this evaluation. Rybakina committed six double faults and had a 42 percent first-serve rate at the end of the match, a shocking drop in stats given a player whose game is mostly based on controlling the point from behind that shot. The clinching moment was when Mertens trailed by two breaks but clawed back in a close opening set tie-break, 7-4. 

Once that set slipped away, Rybakina never recovered, losing the final five games of the match as Mertens grew increasingly comfortable inside the baseline. The match was completed in one hour and thirty-six minutes and ended a worrying run for the world No. 2, who has been eliminated twice in a row in the third round of Wimbledon. 

The biggest problem was that Rybakina’s form had been strong several months ago. She started the season with an Australian Open title and then reached the Indian Wells final. When directly asked about the difference between that and her stance, Rybakina did not pretend to have an answer.

“If I knew exactly why this is happening, I wouldn’t be in this situation right now. I’ve trained well in recent weeks. Moreover, since I was losing early in some tournaments, I even had more time to work. I need to analyze what is happening and change something, because right now, it’s not working,” she said.

There is a lack of consistency, as she has already recorded early exits this season in Berlin and at Queen’s before Wimbledon. 

Rybakina had come into London with a clear shot at the world No. 1; all she had to do was make it to the quarter-finals for it. Instead, Sabalenka’s spot at the top is now safe regardless of how the rest of the tournament unfolds. This has pushed Rybakina’s next opportunity to challenge for the ranking all the way back to the North American hard-court swing later in the year. 

That gap between where she could have been and where she now stands only sharpens the questions about her season. Mertens is the one who made the most of all those weaknesses, and that’s the player in the spotlight during the second week of the tournament. The 30-year-old Belgian will face Marie Bouzkova for a spot in the quarterfinals at the Championships. 

Mertens turns years of losing to Rybakina into her best Wimbledon run in years

For Mertens, the win was as much about erasing history as making it. The Belgian had lost seven of her previous eight meetings with Rybakina, with her only prior win coming back in Madrid. Saturday’s result was the clearest possible statement of how far she has come on grass, a surface she has increasingly made her own through two career Wimbledon doubles titles already to her name. In her on-court interview, you could sense just how significant the moment was. 

“I have no words actually. I feel a little bit like… woo. I’m very happy I won that first set and kept the momentum going. She’s an incredible player. She’s won Wimbledon in the past. A really tough opponent,” she said.

Even Mertens admitted the closing stages tested her nerve as much as her game. She did not evade the question when asked if she was feeling the pressure of serving out such a big victory. “I mean, I think you could see that,” she said.

The result now equals her best-ever run at the tournament. Now that Rybakina has fallen and the draw is thrown wide open with some other top seeds also eliminated, Mertens has a real chance to extend that record into a fortnight that has already produced its fair share of shocks.