The IBM predictor had Jessica Pegula as the favorite going into the semifinal clash against Aryna Sabalenka at the US Open. Given Sabalenka’s recent form up until New York, several fans and pundits had questioned the two-time defending champion’s chances of winning the title, but in a fitting way, the Belarusian has answered all criticisms by being one match away from winning a third consecutive US Open title. After winning the match, the Belarusian did not forget to thank the New York crowd for respecting her despite overwhelmingly supporting the home favorite.

“Thank you for the atmosphere, and honestly, guys, you’re the best. Your respect for me is priceless, and I really appreciate that. I know that you wanted her to win, it’s obvious, but thank you for being so respectful to me,” said Sabalenka during the on-court interview. “Thank you, love you guys. Thank you. I dont know, I was so desperate for the win. I wanted it badly and I was just trying to focus on myself.”

Before she began to dominate New York, Sabalenka had several close losses at the US Open against the likes of Leylah Fernandez and Iga Swiatek in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The most significant moment was the 2023 final, where the Belarusian lost her rhythm against Coco Gauff as the partisan American crowd roared behind the home favorite. Since then, however, Sabalenka has beaten an American opponent in both the semifinal and final to win the title in the last two years. The World No.1 continued the trend with her win over Pegula in 2026.

The first set was a high-quality one, with both players landing over 70% of their first serves. While Sabalenka had a break point in the fourth game and Pegula had one in the ninth, the match remained on serve until 6-5 in the first set. Stepping up to return in the final game of the first set, Sabalenka made her move, as she hit two winners and made Pegula make an error on the forehand to clinch the first set 7-5.

If Pegula needed to make a comeback in the match, it needed to be early in the second set, but Sabalenka did not let her foot off the pedal. The defending champion got a 3-1 lead, which proved to be a decisive moment in the match, as the Belarusian increasingly dictated with both her forehand and backhand. During the seventh game of the set, the Belarusian made a great forehand pass from the corner, forcing Pegula to hit the net and taking a 5-2 lead.

This was the telling moment, as Pegula threw her racket in frustration, and the writing was on the wall. Sabalenka was in no mood to serve it out as she attacked the Pegula serve in the next game, and finished the match with another thunderous forehand to secure the victory in straight sets. She hit 29 winners while making only 22 unforced errors, in what was almost a flawless performance, which saw Sabalenka reach her ninth Major final, her fourth consecutive in New York.

Sabalenka will now face either Coco Gauff or Elena Rybakina for the title on Saturday, with both matchups giving Sabalenka a chance of payback. If it’s Gauff, Sabalenka will look to avenge the 2023 loss in New York, and should it be Rybakina, the Belarusian will look to avenge the Australian Open final loss and send a message across the Tour that she is still the best player, even though the rankings have the Kazakh in the top spot.