Jannik Sinner’s decision on whether to participate in the next tournament is approaching its deadline. His team is set to make a final call within hours on whether he will travel to Shanghai for the Masters 1000 event beginning on October 5, according to reports by Sky Sports Italia. 

The world No. 1 has been training in Monte Carlo with growing intensity, but his latest session on Wednesday failed to resolve doubts about his participation. Sinner has recovered from the extra-articular tendon inflammation in his right knee that first forced him to retire following his Wimbledon final win, and his rehabilitation program, which ended on September 12, has continued to train smoothly since then. 

He and his team are currently evaluating his condition after allowing him as much court time as possible instead of keeping him in a controlled setting, and his condition is reportedly getting better day by day. Last week, he was still not fit enough to compete in Beijing, leading to his withdrawal from the China Open he won just a year earlier. 

That withdrawal fits a broader, deliberately conservative pattern this season. Sinner didn’t even compete at the US Open, and then had to pull out of Beijing as well, specifically to avoid any risk of aggravating the injury. According to the report, that strategy has worked till now even though it cost him a Grand Slam and a number of matches, with his recovery staying on track.

Is the world No. 1 crown in danger?

The ranking math behind all of this remains firmly in Sinner’s favor for now, even if the margins are tightening. Heading into Beijing, he held a 1,370-point lead over his closest challenger, Alexander Zverev. Sinner will drop 500 points from his title run there a year ago, but he remains confident he will not be overtaken, even in the worst-case scenario of Zverev winning both Beijing and Shanghai. 

In that specific scenario, the Italian would only need to reach the round of 16 in Shanghai, that is, if he decides to play the Masters event to stay ahead of the German. To maintain No. 1 place at the end of the season is another and more challenging question. 

Between the final Masters 1000 event in Paris and the ATP Finals in Turin, the points Sinner stands to lose dwarf what Zverev has at risk. Sinner can lose 3,050 points in the rest of the season, which includes 50 in Shanghai, 500 in Vienna, 1000 from his title-winning run in Paris last year, and a full 1500 from his ATP Finals title defense.  

Zverev, on the other hand, has 1,080 points to protect in the same period: 100 from Beijing, 50 from Shanghai, 330 in Vienna from his runner-up finish, 400 from a Paris semifinal, and 200 for a round-robin finish at the Finals. 

That nearly 2000-point gap is the reason why Sinner risks losing his world No .1 crown to Zverev, as he has more points to protect than him and that too after recovering from injury. 

Right now the only question is: will Sinner play Shanghai? His team has been reviewing the latest on-court test results, and the decision is near as they weigh these findings against the broader goal of preserving months of careful, gradual recovery rather than risking it all for one more tournament. Since the knee issue arose, he and his team have been deliberate in their decisions, so with a Masters 1000 title and ranking on the line, there’s little reason to hurry now.