Jessica Pegula has the opportunity to be the oldest first-time world No. 1 in WTA history. Starting out her campaign in just the right form, her road is not straightforward but real: If she wins the US Open title and Elena Rybakina falls before the semifinals, Pegula takes the top ranking for the first time in her career. 

If it does occur, it would rewrite the record books by a long margin. Angelique Kerber is currently the oldest player to reach the No. 1 ranking for the first time, having been 28 years and 238 days old when she did so in 2016. Pegula would have secured the ranking with a win this fortnight, at approximately 32 and a half, well ahead of Kerber’s record. 

The American world No. 3 needed just one hour and 23 minutes to see off Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-3, 6-2, winning 92 percent of points behind her first serve and finishing with 26 winners against only 14 unforced errors. It was a complete performance from the first ball struck, and her opponent never managed to get an opportunity to fight back in the game. 

Pegula has been one of the more consistent players on the tour this year, by a few metrics. So far this season, she has advanced to five tour finals, which is the most by anyone on the tour. Out of those five finals, she won in Charleston and Dubai and came runner-up in Cincinnati, Washington and Berlin. Her 46 wins are also the most by anyone on the tour currently, Rybakina trailing closely on 42. 

Among her 11 WTA Tour titles and 14-year-long career, she is yet to win a Grand Slam, something she needs to do to claim the coveted world No. 1 ranking. The first Grand Slam final she had reached was at the US Open itself in 2024, when she lost to Aryna Sabalenka. She even reached the semifinals last year, again losing to the Belarusian in a close three-setter. 

She continued that momentum at this year’s Australian Open, reaching the semifinals before losing to the eventual champion, Elena Rybakina. If she manages to actually win the tournament, it would be a perfect way to claim the throne by winning her maiden Grand Slam title.

How tight the race to world No. 1 really is?

The ranking picture is as close as it has been in New York. Aryna Sabalenka leads the way with 8,575 points, while Rybakina is second with 8,141 points, a margin of 434. Pegula currently ranks in third place with 7,265 points, 876 points behind Rybakina, and 1,310 points behind Sabalenka. A Grand Slam title is worth 2000 points, and while the WTA follows a 52-week rolling system, this single result can have a huge impact on the rankings. 

This US Open is really three-way due to that math. Rybakina is a real threat to Sabalenka, as she has around 1760 points to gain at Flushing Meadows, which means that if the Kazakh just manages to reach the semifinals, she will be the undeniable new world No. 1. Sabalenka and Rybakina directly cross paths in the finals – hence the Belarusian does not even get the chance to stop her before then.

Pegula’s path is a bit tricky one, as several things need to go her way. Rybakina needs to lose before reaching the last four, and they both can only meet in the finals according to the draw. She can look after Sabalenka herself, as they are projected to meet in the semifinals. 

What makes it interesting is ‌that, except for Rybakina, the other two do not control their destiny completely. It is entirely possible that the ranking will not be settled until the final ball is struck on the last Saturday of the tournament, and we might have a new world No. 1 on Monday. 

The tour has been dominated by Sabalenka for the top spot over the past two years and by Iga Swiatek earlier – this genuine three-way finish at a major has made it exciting for everyone at the twilight of the season.