Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is set to return to Flushing Meadows to defend his crown, but John McEnroe is backing a different man to leave New York with the trophy. Alexander Zverev spent years earning a reputation as the best player to never win a Grand Slam, and that changed at Roland Garros in June. The German is arriving at Flushing Meadows as the tournament’s top seed for the first time in his career, and the four-time US Open champion truly believes that he deserves the tag of the favorite. 

“There are strong arguments that he is the favorite for the title,” McEnroe said via EuroSports. “Even though things haven’t gone particularly well for him this summer, I believe he is more confident than ever.”

Zverev was beaten in his tournament opener in Montreal by Tallon Griekspoor, then squandered a match point against Tommy Paul in the Cincinnati last sixteen. He is the top seed because of Jannik Sinner’s knee injury, rather than the result of anything that Zverev has accomplished on a hard court this month, and that makes him the first German man to hold the top seed since Boris Becker in 1991. 

“He played brilliantly at Wimbledon and seemed to be playing at almost his absolute best,” he said, describing a level from the German close to his absolute best across the fortnight. That followed an even bigger breakthrough at Roland Garros, where Zverev outlasted Flavio Cobolli over five sets to win his first Grand Slam title, before a four-set defeat to Sinner denied him the Wimbledon trophy a month later.

On the US Open specifically, McEnroe pointed to one detail he considers decisive. “Besides, he doesn’t have to play against Sinner,” he said. The one opponent who has beaten Zverev on the biggest stages this year will not be standing across the net in New York.

“In best-of-five sets, he’s simply harder to beat because he’s extremely fit,” he noted, a trait that has carried the German deep into second weeks even when his form looked shaky beforehand.

Mats Wilander, the 1988 US Open champion, has also raised concerns about Alcaraz’s fitness following his lengthy injury layoff, and considers Novak Djokovic to be the only other viable prospect at 39. Wilander was succinct in his ruling, saying that Zverev is currently ahead of both. 

Sascha opens his campaign against Lorenzo Sonego, a player he has defeated in all six of their meetings, giving him the utmost confidence to start the tournament. Whether that confidence takes him deep into the draw will unfold in the next two weeks at USTA Tennis Center.

Zverev’s toughest obstacle may be an American

John McEnroe does not have Alexander Zverev as the definite favorite for the tournament. He has predicted an upset somewhere as the tournament goes along, pointing to Flavio Cobolli’s French Open final run as proof that something like that can get repeated at the US Open as well. 

The most obvious threats for Zverev are homegrown. There are six Americans seeded this year and five have true US Open history. Ben Shelton, ranked ninth, made the semi-finals in 2023. Frances Tiafoe, twelfth, has gone that far twice, in 2022 and 2024. Taylor Fritz, tenth, reached the final that same year. Learner Tien and Brandon Nakashima complete the group, who are also ranked in the top twenty and can have a deep run on home soil. 

Sascha has been here before in a more literal sense. Six years ago, an early loss to Andy Murray in Cincinnati preceded his only appearance in a US Open final to date, one he lost to Dominic Thiem after squandering a two-set lead. This is proof that a poor American hard court swing does not mean he will not have a successful US Open campaign. 

What makes this year different from 2020, and the reason McEnroe was able to overlook the defending champion, is that he is already a Grand Slam champion and the company Zverev has in the top of the draw. Sinner is missing, Alcaraz is still undercooked, and Djokovic is a year past his prime. The world No. 2 has had a fantastic 2026 and sensational Grand Slam results. The question is, can he continue that form in New York against a strong home contingent?