Is the “Marta Kostyuk theory” actually true? There’s a strange trend following Marta Kostyuk around this year, and it just got another entry. Since the spring, every player who has beaten the Ukrainian at a major tournament has gone on to win the whole thing, and Linda Noskova’s win over her in the US Open round of 16 puts her right in line to continue it.

The pattern started at Roland Garros, where Kostyuk fell in the semifinals to Mirra Andreeva, who lifted the trophy in Paris. Weeks later at Wimbledon, the same script played out on the same stage, this time with Noskova beating Kostyuk in the semis before going on to win the title herself. 

The streak continued in the North American hard court swing too, as Iga Swiatek knocked Kostyuk out in the round of 16 in Toronto before claiming the title, and then Coco Gauff defeated her in the quarterfinal of Cincinnati before winning the title. 

Noskova’s 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 win over Kostyuk in New York, a battle that saw her save three match points serving for it in the third set before finally closing things out, now makes her the only player to have beaten Kostyuk twice during this run. 

She next faces top seed and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, a tougher test than anything the theory has faced so far, given Sabalenka has yet to drop a set this tournament. Sabalenka holds a 2-0 advantage over Noskova in the head-to-head record, with the latest meeting coming at this year’s Indian Wells, where the Belarusian blew the Czech off in straight sets, but both those wins came before Noskova became a Grand Slam champion.