The 2026 season has already been a huge stepping stone for 20-year-old Rafael Jodar, with the Spaniard making his Top-10 debut in November after being ranked 165th in January at the start of the year. Jodar has already made his mark at the Grand Slams and Masters events, and should he clinch one of the remaining four spots for the ATP Finals, the Spaniard will have had a fitting end to the season, but he does have to keep a 24-time Major champion at bay to do so.
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To that end, the World No. 10 made a tremendous start to his campaign at the Paris Masters. The event in Nanterre is the last mandatory event of the year, and all players will be jostling for points to make the cut for Turin. One would think that being in the Race in his first year on the Tour might be overbearing for someone new like Jodar, but the youngster showed no signs of it as he won 6-2, 6-3 against Alejandro Tabilo in the first round.
With the win, the Spaniard is now on 9th in the ATP Race Rankings with 3234 points to his name. While the ATP Finals is for the Top 8-ranked players, Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal would mean that a ninth-place finish would be enough to make it to Turin. There is little wiggle room for Jodar in the Race as he is only 64 points ahead of 10th-placed Alex de Minaur, with Frances Tiafoe still having a lead of over 150 points in 8th position.
Not to mention, there is an extremely motivated Novak Djokovic in 11th with 2900 points in the Race, and the Serb has expressed his aim of being there in Turin this year. However, the seven-time champion at the Paris Masters has a tough draw this year, as his first-round opponent is Valentin Vacherot, who is coming off winning the title in Basel and has previously beaten the Serb in their only match in Shanghai in 2025. For the former World No. 1, winning the title is the only sureshot way to reach the final, whereas a semifinal or runner-up finish will keep in contention, but will depend on other results as well.
As for his opening match in Paris, Jodar did not start well, losing his serve to go 1-2 down in the first set. From then on, the Spaniard gave the Chilean no leeway, winning five games in a row to take the first set. While Tabilo did show some fightback in the second set, leveling the score at 3-3 after going 1-3 down, there was no stopping Jodar, who closed out the set at 6-3.
The match against Tabilo is proof of how far Jodar’s game has developed in the past year, as the Chilean beat the young Spaniard 6-1, 6-2 in their first-ever meeting at Indian Wells. However, Jodar quickly improved his game, and by the time they met in Washington, the Spaniard had defeated Tabilo in a three-set thriller. Since then, the World No. 10 has won six sets in a row against the Chilean, beating him in Cincinnati and Basel before he blew him away in Paris.
As for the Turin qualification, Jodar is well placed in the Rankings, but will need to win a few more matches in the event to make it official. His next round opponent is a former World No. 2, whom the Spaniard just beat in a recent event.
Rafael Jodar Will Look to Keep His Winning Momentum in Paris
Having beaten Tabilo in Paris, Jodar is all set to face Casper Ruud in the second round in Paris. While the Norwegian has a more accomplished resume, having reached three Major finals and being a former World No. 2, the Spaniard will be confident ahead of the match.
This will be the second consecutive Masters 1000 event that Jodar and Ruud will be going up against each other, with the Spaniard winning 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 against Ruud at the Shanghai Masters. Ruud had a dominant win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo to kickstart his campaign in Paris, with the Norwegian winning over eighty percent of his service points and not facing a single break point in the match, while breaking his opponent three times.
On the other hand, Jodar did get broken twice against Tabilo, but the Spaniard won 58 percent of the return points, which was a key factor in the win. With the indoor hard courts being fast, both Ruud and Jodar need to be on their toes to capitalize on any break point opportunities. While Ruud has reached three indoor finals in his career, he had a poor 3-7 record at the Paris Masters before this edition, giving his 20-year-old opponent an added edge.