Carla Esparza will fight Marina Rodriguez in the final UFC Fight Night event from the Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi. The former was the inaugural UFC Strawweight Champion. However, she held onto the belt for less than 3 months before going down to Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 185.
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The 7th ranked ‘Cookie Monster’ is nowhere near the title scene at present but she knows a defeat to the 9th ranked Marina Rodriguez will see her plummet even further down the pecking order.
Carla Esparza
‘Cookie Monster’ holds a 16-6 record and will bring a fighting style where she will look to claim rounds and drain her opponent.
She is on a three-fight win streak since falling twice in 2018. In 2019, she beat Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, and in 2020 she beat Michelle Waterson via decision. This has largely been reflective of her UFC career with every win since submitting Rose Namajunas in 2014 coming in this fashion.
‘Cookie Monster’ is proficient with fight-ending holds, however, these reflect her pre-UFC days. Her last striking victory came nearly 8 years ago at Invicta FC and based on her next opponent it seems unlikely to change if she gets a 4th win in a row.
Marina Rodriguez
Rodriguez will enter the Octagon for the first time in 2020. She has claimed 5 KO wins in her 14-fight MMA career. However, akin to her opponent, she too has largely failed to finish fights since debuting in the UFC proper.
The fighter has 2 wins and 2 draws in the promotion, however, she has never tasted defeat as a professional and has a powerful striking game. Based on the stats, the tale of the tape (w.r.t to her opponent), and the career history, it’s tough to see her losing to Esparza tonight.
UFC Fight Night Prediction
The Brazilian fighter lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% striking accuracy. This game plan if utilized tonight will hold her in good stead should the fight go the distance.
She has a 2-inch reach advantage as well which will enable her to get in free shots as ‘Cookie Monster’ (3.28 takedowns per 15 minutes) tries to attempt a takedown.
However, in her 5 UFC fights, Rodriguez boasts of a 70% takedown defense and it will not be easy to get her onto the canvas.
These stats imply that Esparza will have to overcome a reach disadvantage against a striker who will not let her take the fight to her territory. It will be a tricky night for the UFC’s inaugural Strawweight Champion and her run of wins is set to snap at the event.
However, she is yet to lose in the first round and has fallen before the third round just once in the UFC. Do not expect that stat to change.
Prediction: Marina Rodriguez claims a unanimous decision win
Sources: Carla Esparza-UFC Stats, Carla Esparza-Fight History, Marina Rodriguez-UFC Stats, Marina Rodriguez-Fight History, UFC-Rankings
