UFC Vegas 19- Andrei Arlovski vs Tom Aspinall: Prediction and Fight Analysis

Published 02/20/2021, 12:15 AM EST
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 19: (L-R) Opponents Andrei Arlovski of Belarus and Tom Aspinall of England face off during the UFC weigh-in at UFC APEX on February 19, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)


The main card opener for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs Lewis will witness a heavyweight clash between a veteran and a newcomer. Andrei Arlovski takes on Tom Aspinall who is on a five-fight win streak and he’s 2-0 in the UFC. The overarching narrative of the bout is a grizzly former champion taking on a young upstart who’s looking to make a splash.

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The card comes in with heavyweights who are fighting for contention in order to stake their claim to heavyweight gold. Even though the Arlovski vs Aspinall match-up isn’t in line for contention, the heavyweight division isn’t particularly deep. Stringing together a few comprehensive wins can allow a fighter to break into the upper rung of the title landscape.

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UFC heavyweights: Andrei Arlovski vs Tom Aspinall

The Pitbull’ heads into his thirty-fourth UFC appearance, and he’s chasing down the all-time record that sits at 36 appearances. Arlovski last fought back in November when he defeated another contender in Tanner Boser by unanimous decision.

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – NOVEMBER 07: (L-R) Andrei Arlovski of Belarus kicks Tanner Boser of Canada in a heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on November 07, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

He’s 30-19 with 2 NC across his illustrious career and comes in with a 77-inch reach, similar to his opponent who is at 78 inches. What’s more, the former champion is 3-2 in his last five outings and is riding a two-fight win streak.

Tom Aspinal is fighting his third UFC bout and will be looking to accrue yet another KO win on his 9-2 overall resume. His last career defeat came via DQ back in May 2016, where he threw downward elbows and suffered a loss. He last faced Alan Baudot at UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs Sandhagen and sparked his opponent via first-round TKO.

‘The Pitbull’ vs Aspinall: Striking and Grappling Overview

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Tom Aspinall is by far the leader in significant strikes landed per minute as his numbers speak for themselves. Aspinall comes in at 11.14 compared to Andrei Arlovski’s 3.48. Not to mention, the young prospect has a 74% striking accuracy thus far and will certainly favor his chances on the feet.

Arlovski’s takedown accuracy leaves plenty to be desired at 36% as he prefers to muscle against the cage. Aspinall averages around 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes and won’t be too worried about the threat that Arlovski may present.

Prediction: Tom Aspinall to claim a second-round TKO victory

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Darryl Pinto

1450 articles

Darryl Pinto is a senior MMA writer at EssentiallySports. He is currently pursuing his graduate degree in Mass Media (with a specialization in Journalism) out of Xavier’s College and has a year's experience in his current role. Darryl specializes in predictions, reporting, and covering UFC events live.

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