UFC Fight Night 176: Ovince Saint Preux vs Alonzo Menifield – Prediction and Analysis

The UFC scrapped the original matchup between Ovince Saint Preux and Alonzo Menifield, scheduled for August 22, as the former tested positive for the coronavirus. Now, the re-booked match will slot in as the UFC Fight Night 176 co-main event. Both fighters will strive to avoid suffering consecutive defeats. 

Ovince Saint Preux

Ovince Saint Preux is going through a dismal run of form in the UFC. The 37-year-old has claimed just two wins in his last six fights. 

Two of his four defeats came at the hands of ranked contenders Dominick Reyes and Nikita Krylov. ‘OSP’ came into his own at Fight Night: Smith vs Teixeira and took his fight against Ben Rothwell to a split decision. 

Now, against another unranked contender, he will look to claim his sixth successive win with a finish. He has a four-inch reach advantage and three-inch height advantage which could tilt the scales in his favor.

Alonzo Menifield

Alonzo Menifield has a fraction of Saint Preux’s experience. He has fought 10 times and claimed nine wins. Unfortunately, his last appearance at UFC 250 was the first loss. 

The UFC Fight Night 176 match will be Menifield’s chance to show fans how he reacts to a setback. The onus will be on him to avoid back-to-back defeats. He could not have asked for a better opponent than ‘OSP’ as he aims to get back on track.

UFC Fight Night 176 Prediction

Ovince Saint Preux is a shadow of the fighter he was when he went on a run to challenge Jon Jones for the light heavyweight championship. He hasn’t out-landed his opponents even once in his last eight fights. 

The 37-year-old landed a decent 2.60 significant strikes per minute at a 46% accuracy. He absorbed 2.91 strikes and has a 45% strike defense score in the UFC. 

Meanwhile, Menifield landed 3.75 strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy. As is the norm with fighters who won a majority of their fights via T/KO, his defense in UFC fights pales compared to ‘OSP’.

Saint Preux has won his four of his last five fights by submission and could use his reach advantage well here. He submitted Tyson Pedro and Yushin Okami without resorting to a takedown. Based on the UFC stats, Saint Preux would be wise to not attempt a takedown as he has a 40% accuracy which may not help against Menifield’s 85% takedown defense. 

However, he knows Menifield will have to stretch and lunge to connect with his strikes. As a result, ‘OSP’ could trap him in a variety of holds with no takedown.

Menifield has gone beyond the first round just three times in his professional career. His only full fight came at UFC 250. Hence, ‘OSP’ knows he needs to take the fight deep to secure the win. 

However, Menifield is no slouch and will do his best to avoid back-to-back full fights. He will be too powerful for Saint Preux, primarily because the latter absorbs too many punches compared to what he dishes out. His real test will be in getting ‘OSP’ down as the fighter has lost just twice by T/KO. 

Prediction: Alonzo Menifield to win by unanimous decision.