UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley: Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley- Prediction and Analysis

Published 09/18/2020, 10:17 PM EDT


Welterweight fighters Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley successfully made weight, thus making their fight for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Woodley official. This is a fight the duo has wanted for a long time and fans will keep their fingers crossed that no last-minute misfortune derails the bad blood clash. 

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‘Chaos’ Covington will recommence his journey to the welterweight title. He will enter the octagon for the first time since UFC 245, where a late TKO stoppage thwarted his bid against Kamaru Usman. Against Woodley, he comes up against a former champion whose name still holds some weight in the division. 

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Meanwhile, ‘The Chosen One’ Woodley languishes at fifth and could see this fight as a double-edged sword. A win will propel him back to the championship scene, but a defeat will see him relegated to being a gatekeeper. 

UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley- Analysis

‘The Chosen One’ holds a two-inch reach advantage which may leave him in a good position to get in a load of free strikes. In 23 UFC fights, he landed 2.38 significant strikes per minute at a 49% accuracy. His 2.56 significant strikes absorbed is in proportion and he deflected 56% of his opponent’s strikes. 

The stats show us a fighter who stays out of trouble and lands strikes to devastating effect in the limited windows of opportunity that he gets. However, against ‘Chaos’ these chances may seldom appear. 

Covington is a cardio beast who will appear as though he has just strolled into the octagon even when he starts the last round. 

The former interim champion landed 4.17 significant strikes per minute in the UFC with an accuracy of 37%. It shows us he constantly smothered his opponents in his fights and will not let Woodley have a sniff. Despite his intense fight style, Covington remains mindful of his opponents’ strikes. He absorbed just 3.02 significant strikes and deflected 55% of his opponents’ attempts. 

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Also, Covington dominates Woodley in the ground game. He is guaranteed to attempt a takedown given his 4.91 takedowns score per 15 minutes. He landed 10 takedowns in rounds against Robbie Lawler and will mete out the same treatment to Woodley. Hence, the former champion’s 90% takedown accuracy will face one of its sternest tests. 

If Woodley can do an Usman and make it a strike fest, expect Covington to hang in there. Chiefly, this will be because of his newfound striking ability, which gives him an edge he didn’t have in his previous fight. Woodley can win if he lands a series of strikes to rock Covington, and as the underdog, he can fight freely.

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Prediction: Colby Covington to claim a unanimous decision win

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Reubyn Coutinho

1008 articles

Reubyn Coutinho is a Combat Sports editor at EssentiallySports with over 2 years of journalistic experience. Having earned his bachelor's degree in Mass Media with a specialization in Journalism from Xavier's College, Reubyn has interned with the sports desks at DNA and Times Now before joining EssentiallySports to further his passion for sports content. Reubyn has interviewed former UFC champions like 'Mighty Mouse' Demetrious Johnson and Miesha Tate.

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